Best Under the Radar College Football Bets: Week 11
Week 10 was a great bounce-back week. It started on a high note with MACtion, as Central Michigan beat Western Michigan as 9.5-point underdogs and went over the total. History got the best of us in the Army-Air Force game, but we recovered when Tennessee knocked off Kentucky in the nightcap.
Things are getting serious in college football, and we’ll try to keep the momentum rolling in Week 11.
- Week 10 record: 3-1
- 2021 season record: 20-12
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Cincinnati Bearcats -23.5 at South Florida Bulls, Total 57.5
Yes, I’m doing it again. Time is running out for Cincinnati. The Bearcats have failed to cover as massive favorites against lesser conference foes and aren’t making a great case to an already skeptical College Football Playoff committee.
But with this play, I’m not going to ask Cincinnati to cover. I’m just asking them to score against a Bulls defense that’s giving up 34.3 points per game, ranks 120th in rushing defense, and 113th in passing defense.
I’m not as confident in laying the lumber with Cincy because South Florida might find some success on the ground. The Bearcats rank 76th in run defense, but 36th in defensive line yards and 37th in stuff rate.
There are no more excuses for Desmond Ridder and this Bearcats offense. They should move the ball with relative ease and won’t be afraid to put up some style points.
Picks: Cincinnati team total over 40.5 points, lean Cincinnati -23.5 or better
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +6.5 at Indiana Hoosiers, Total 43
This line feels like a bit of an overreaction to Rutgers getting blown out, 52-3, at home last week by a Wisconsin team that’s starting to find its stride.
Both of these teams are in horrible form as of late. Indiana has completely come off the rails, and last year’s dream season feels like a distant memory. The Hoosiers are 2-7 straight up and against the spread and haven’t been favored since late September against Western Kentucky. That was also the last time Indiana won a game.
Both these offenses are lousy. Rutgers is averaging 4.16 yards per play, and Indiana is averaging 4.68 yards per play. The Scarlet Knights rank 125th in offensive available yards. Indiana ranks 117th.
Rutgers starting quarterback Noah Verdal’s status for Saturday’s game is in question after leaving last week’s game with an unspecified injury. However, head coach Greg Schiano expressed confidence in Verdal’s availability.
Defensively, Rutgers is allowing just 2.14 points per drive, while Indiana is surrendering 2.69 points per drive. Both teams rank outside the top 80 in rushing and passing offense.
While neither team has an elite defense, this game has the makings of a classic Big Ten defensive struggle. Factor in expected winds between 10-to-15 miles per hour, and I feel even better about this under. This line’s a bit high, so I don’t mind a play on the underdog either.
Picks: Under 43, lean Rutgers +6.5
Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>
Nevada Wolfpack +2.5 at San Diego State Aztecs, Total 45.5
It pains me, but I have to bet against my beloved Wolfpack against San Diego State in this critical Mountain West showdown.
The Aztecs have considerable advantages in the trenches, as they rank 33rd in average line yards allowed, 16th in stuff rate, and 49th in sack rate. Conversely, Nevada ranks 125th in average line yards, 124th in stuff rate, and 42nd in sack rate. That’ll make it hard on Nevada QB Carsen Strong to move the ball consistently.
This will likely be a tight game the entire way, which is why I’m more comfortable taking the home team on the money line rather than laying the short number.
Picks: San Diego State -130
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.