Betting Trends For International NFL Games
After a brief hiatus in 2020 due to COVID, the NFL’s International Series returned in 2021. England’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosted two NFL games this past fall. We saw the Atlanta Falcons defeat the New York Jets 27-20 as 2.5-point favorites and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Miami Dolphins as 3-point underdogs. The Jaguars are the only team who will return to England again this fall.
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The NFL has played a total of 31 international games. This year, we have five international games. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will host the Minnesota Vikings vs. the New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants vs. the Green Bay Packers. England’s Wembley Stadium will host a third British game involving the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is no stranger to playing overseas. The London Jaguars have played eight games in England, three more than the next closest team. The NFL will also return to Mexico for the first time since 2019, with the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals facing off at Estadio Azteca. For the first time, the NFL will travel to Germany. Tampa Bay will take on Seattle at Allianz Arena in Munich as Germany gets a chance to watch the greatest quarterback of all time, Drew Lock.
Betting Trends for International NFL Games
Lean Toward Favorites
As for betting trends in these international games, lean towards the favorites. The favorite has won outright in 23 of 30 games that haven’t tied (Cincinnati and Washington tied 27-27 in 2016). Favorites are also 20-11 against the spread, which is a 65% clip. Draft Kings has already released odds for the international games. Minnesota and San Francisco are slight favorites, while Green Bay, Tampa, and Denver are expected to win by a touchdown. If you want to side with history in these international games, it would be wise to take these teams.
Consider the Under
Totals in international games have been pretty even. The over has hit in 15 of 31 international games at 48%. However, the under has hit seven times in the past ten international games. We’ve seen stinkers from a few offenses as they travel across the pond, with five teams being held to less than ten points over the last five seasons of international play. If you want to bet the trends, betting the under would be the sharp play as many offenses have had difficulty bringing their points with them as they travel outside the country.
Factor in the Stadium
England has hosted games at multiple stadiums, and some interesting trends can be seen when looking at outcomes in those different stadiums. The over has hit in three of four games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and the under has hit in six straight games at Wembley Stadium. The playing surface at both stadiums may be a factor in the outcomes of these games. This year, Minnesota and New Orleans, New York, and Green Bay will play at Tottenham Stadium, while Denver and Jacksonville will face off at Wembley. We’ve only seen two games played in Mexico and none in Germany, so we can’t find any trends for these games, but keep the venue in mind when betting the games in England this fall.
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