BIG 12 Championship: Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma Sooners Odds & Game Pick (2019 College Football)

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Coming into Saturday’s Big 12 title game at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas, the Oklahoma Sooners will need some help if they hope to make their fourth College Football Playoff (CFP) appearance in five years. For Baylor, their improbable run to the CFB ended a few weeks ago when they allowed 24 unanswered points in the second half to lose 34-31 against this same Sooners team. Third-year head coach Matt Rhule has already overachieved in quickly turning around the program, but Bears’ fans will surely be left feeling short-changed without a win in this one. Let’s take a deeper look at this Big 12 matchup to see where we can find an edge.

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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, December 7th, 2019 – 12:00 pm EST
Oklahoma -9, O/U 64.5 (via PointsBet)

To say Rhule and his staff have turned this Baylor program around in just three short seasons might be the biggest understatement of 2019. In just two seasons, Rhule became the first head coach in Power Five college football history to turn a 1-11 team into an 11-1 team. A large part of that has been turning what was widely know as an offensive powerhouse into a team with a respectable defensive unit under the guidance of coordinator Phil Snow. At the end of that 1-11 season, Baylor ranked 117th in the FBS in allowing 6.46 yards per play. Through 12 games this season, Baylor ranks 18th in that same category, allowing just 4.77 yards per play. This Bears’ defense also leads all Big-12 teams this season in getting to the quarterback 40 times. On the offensive side of the ball, Baylor is led by junior quarterback Charlie Brewer, who has also improved in each of his three seasons in Waco, accounting for a career-high 30 touchdowns this season but more importantly throwing just six interceptions. If Baylor hopes to compete with Oklahoma again in this one, Brewer will likely be asked to throw the ball well over 30 times, and his ability to get the ball downfield could very well tell the story in this one.

With their only loss of the season coming against Kansas State on the road, the Sooners still need a big win here and some help to sneak into the coveted fourth and final spot in the CFP. Third-year and now NFL-coveted head coach Lincoln Riley once again has this offense humming along this season, leading the nation in yards per play (8.60), yards per game (570.3), and finishing fifth in points per game at 44.3. Oklahoma’s defense, however, led by first-year coordinator Alex Grinch, has once again been a liability for the Sooners, allowing 24.7 points per game including giving up 40-plus points in consecutive games against Kansas State and Iowa State. Luckily for Grinch, however, Riley once again has an ace at the quarterback position in Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts who leads all passers in the nation this season at 11.7 yards per attempt. His combined 49 touchdowns and 71.8% completion percentage has carried this team throughout the season, especially in their come-from-behind victory against this Baylor team (297 yards, four touchdowns).

Bottom line?

While I don’t expect this Bears team to be exactly scared of the Sooners, I do think getting blanked in the second half at home when you could all but taste a perfect season will be very difficult to shove out of memory. Additionally, in a game of this magnitude, I’m having a difficult time taking the combination of Rhule/Brewer against one of the most battle-tested combinations of Riley/Hurts that we have in the sport. With that said, there’s not a defense I trust less among the nation’s best than this Grinch unit, and I see a ton of value in Baylor scoring at least two first-half touchdowns as this game opens up.

Pick: 1H Team Total OVER 14 (+110)

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