Big Ten Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/14)
Big Ten quarter-final action begins today at noon ET. The day’s first game features a matchup between the Oregon Ducks and the Michigan State Spartans. Will the Spartans complete the season sweep? The other three games pit the Wisconsin Badgers against the UCLA Bruins, the Illinois Fighting Illini against the Maryland Terrapins and the Purdue Boilermakers against the Michigan Wolverines.
Here are the best Big Ten Tournament picks for March 14th.
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Friday’s Best Big Ten Tournament College Basketball Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Oregon vs. Michigan State
Both of these teams are red-hot entering today's quarter-final matchup. The Ducks have won eight games in a row, while the Spartans have won seven. However, these winning streaks are not equal. While the Ducks have beaten just one ranked team during their winning streak, the Spartans have defeated five ranked opponents, including Michigan twice.
The Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Not only have they defeated five ranked teams during their seven-game winning streak, but four of those wins were by nine or more points. They've been dominating opponents. I expect that to continue today against the Ducks.
When these two teams met on February 8th, the Spartans won 86-74. The Ducks led by 14 at halftime of that game, but they still lost by 12. That game proved that even if the Ducks play one of their best halves of basketball, the Spartans are still a significantly better team than them. With this being the second game in two days for the Ducks, I'll back the Spartans to win by double digits again.
Pick: Michigan State -6.5 (-110)
Wisconsin vs. UCLA
When these two teams met in the regular season, they combined for 168 points, as the Bruins picked up the home win by a final score of 85-83. Will we see another offensive explosion today? Or will the defenses show up? After all, the Bruins are allowing just 65.1 points per game and the Badgers scored only 70 points in their win yesterday.
While it wouldn't be a surprise to see this be a lower-scoring game than many expect, I'm taking the over. These two teams are very evenly matched and while I believe the Badgers are the better team, they may not be at their sharpest after playing a pretty close game against Northwestern yesterday. With the spread off the table, the best thing to do is back a high-scoring affair.
The Badgers are averaging 80.4 points per game. While the Bruins have allowed fewer than 70 points in five of their last six, they've been a part of high-scoring games throughout the season. The Badgers' defense is decent, allowing just over 70 points per game, but the Bruins' offense should have no problem getting the best of them. And even if the defenses show up, the fact this number is set more than 20 points below the total these two produced earlier this year makes the over a must-play.
Pick: Over 142.5 Points (-110)
Illinois vs. Maryland
Speaking of high-scoring games, the total for this game is set at a whopping 159.5. Yesterday, Illinois defeated Iowa 106-94, as the two teams easily cleared the listed total of 166.5. Will the Fighting Illini find themselves in another high-scoring game against a great offensive team?
Both teams may score in the 80s tonight, but the best play of this game is backing Maryland against the spread. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Terrapins defeated the Fighting Illini by 21 in Illinois.
The Fighting Illini have been an inconsistent team this season. They're on a four-game winning streak, with wins over Michigan and Purdue during that stretch, but before their current run, they lost by 43 to the Duke Blue Devils, 21 to Wisconsin and 14 to Michigan State. They're playing well now, but the Terrapins asserted their dominance earlier this season. I expect them to do that again tonight.
Pick: Maryland -1.5 (-105)
Purdue vs. Michigan
The final game of the night features two teams that have stumbled through the end of the season. The Wolverines are on a three-game losing streak, with two of those losses coming by at least 17 points. They've lost four of their last six games, with their only two wins coming over two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
But the Boilermakers haven't been much better. While they picked up a win over the USC Trojans yesterday, they ended the regular season losing five of their last seven games. Even yesterday's win over the lowly Trojans was far from convincing, as the teams were tied with less than a minute remaining in the game.
Ultimately, I'll back the Wolverines in this game, because even though they're on a losing streak, they're the more complete team overall. These two teams met twice in the regular season, splitting those games, with the Boilermakers winning big on their home floor and the Wolverines winning by two on theirs. I expect this game to be as close as the second matchup was, with the Wolverines sneaking by with a narrow victory over a faltering team.
Pick: Michigan Moneyline (+125)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.