Big3 Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/19)
The Big3 is heading to Chicago for Week 5 of the regular season. Below, I make picks for three of the four games. First, I explain why the Power are being undervalued against the 305. Then, I highlight why the Triplets have defensive problems, despite being 4-0. And finally, I discuss who I believe will win the meeting between the Trilogy and the Ball Hogs.
Here are the best bets for the Sunday, July 19th Big3 slate.
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Sunday’s Best Big3 Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Power -2.5 (-115)
The Power showed a lot in their decisive win over the Trilogy in Week 4. The Trilogy were playing very well entering the game, but Elijah Stewart scored 23 points, as the Power went on to win by eight. Stewart is now second in the league with 76 points.
With this result fresh in my mind, I'm surprised that the 305 are only 2.5-point underdogs. In Week 4, the 305 lost by three to the previously winless Rig Hands. They're now just 1-3, with their only win coming against the winless Amps.
What's most alarming to me is that the 305 haven't been very competitive against better Big3 teams. They lost by 12 to the Triplets, despite the game being played in Sunries, Fla., and they fell by nine to the Riot, who are just 2-2. The Power are undefeated, and they have no reason to be looking ahead to Week 6, as their opponent is the 1-3 Rig Hands. This should be a blowout.
Chicago Triplets vs. LA Riot Over 93.5 (-115)
The Triplets are undefeated after four weeks, but they've allowed 185 points. That's tied for the third-most in the league. It also means that the Triplets are allowing 46.25 points per game. So far this season, only the 305 have scored fewer than 47 points against the Triplets.
While the Riot have scored the fewest points in the league, a big reason for that is they played a shortened game against the 305. While they ultimately won that contest 39-30, had they played a full contest, they'd likely have at least 11 more points than the 162 that currently shows in the standings.
The Riot have scored 40 or fewer points in each of their losses. However, in their Week 3 defeat at the hands of the Ball Hogs, they actually led 26-17 at halftime. This is a streaky team, and while I expect the Triplets to reach 50 first, the Riot have enough offensive talent to reach at least 44.
DMV Trilogy (+110)
I liked the Trilogy against the Power last week, but there was much more of a gap between the two teams than I anticipated. Still, I think this Trilogy team is really good, and I'm a little surprised they're underdogs against the Ball Hogs.
The Ball Hogs very nearly took down the Triplets, becoming the first team to reach 50 against them this season. But as I already highlighted earlier, the Triplets have been winning close games all season. Plus, the Trilogy already faced the Triplets, losing by just two points as well.
Neither of these teams has beaten a team with a winning record this season. That said, I like the balanced attack of the Trilogy more than the Jeremy Pargo-focused attack of the Ball Hogs. Pargo has scored 84 points, which is 41 more than any other Ball Hog. Meanwhile, the Trilogy have two players who have scored at least 57 points this season, while their third-leading scorer has just one point less than the Ball Hogs' second-leading scorer.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.