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Bills vs. Bengals: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bills vs. Bengals.

NFL Betting Primer: Bills vs. Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home. Therefore, we should be wary of them on the road in Cincy. They are 1-3 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season.

Still, Buffalo's offense should be able to move the ball even amid their road struggles as they rank second in third-down conversion rate this season. Cincy ranks 24th defending on third downs.

The Bengals are also 17th overall in DVOA. The Bills scored 24 points on an equal if not better Buccaneers' defensive unit (12th in DVOA) last Thursday night.

Josh Allen - despite the narrative that he is super careless with the ball - has one turnover-worthy play over the team's last five games. Buffalo also boasts the second-best red-zone offense this season (69%).

The Bills defense is the bigger issue at hand. Injuries have caught up with them, as they have allowed season-best performances to the league's two worst offenses (Patriots, Giants) in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Failed to close out last Thursday night versus the Buccaneers.

They have allowed 20.25 points and 300-plus yards per game on defense in the last four weeks. They also rank 9th worst term in terms of third downs allowed over the last 3 weeks.

They forced an OVER game total with the Patriots' anemic offense...

Simply put, I see no reason why the Bengals can't continue to shred this Bills defense. They are finally healthy and we saw last week them impose their will on an exploitable 49ers defense. Rinse and repeat folks.

The Bengals are heating up. Back them at home as 1-point favorites (moneyline). And take the over on what should be a high-scoring affair on Sunday Night Football.

Josh Allen has thrown for 284-plus passing yards in 7 straight games as a road underdog. Take the over on his passing yards prop (267.5 passing yards). Pair it with Dalton Kincaid OVER

Kincaid caught 5 passes out of 7 targets for 65 yards in Week 8. He scored 1 touchdown (18% Target share). The week before, Kincaid ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks while playing 61% of the snaps. In Week 8, he ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks while playing 84% of the snaps.

Wheels ARE up for the rookie tight end versus a defense that ranks 1st in most fantasy points allowed to TEs this season.

If it ain't broke don't fix it. Tee Higgins hit the over on his receiving yards prop last week, and the lines have barely moved his yardage prop.

Higgins has a 62 receiving yards per game career average. Last year he averaged 64 receiving yards per game and went over 45.5 yards in 11 of 17 games played, including 9 in a row.

Look for him to start a new streak in Week 9. Also like the under on Tyler Boyd at 4.5 receptions. He's only hit the over in 4/7 games this season, two of which came in games where Higgins as not played or was limited to a snap count.

My Picks:

  • Bengals ML (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Over 49.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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