Bills vs Cardinals NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Buffalo (BUF) vs. Arizona (ARI): BUF -6.5
Sides
- The Buffalo Bills were 11-5 as a favorite in 2023.
- But they covered just 43% of their games ATS as favorites. 7-9 ATS.
- The 2023 Bills were 8-2 and 5-5 ATS at home.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Woof.
- My projections LOVE Arizona in this spot. I have it closer to a FG spread.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last five road openers, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- They were 53 percent ATS as underdogs last season.
Totals
- Buffalo was at an even O/U at home versus the expectation of a team with a high-powered offense.
- The Bills were 5-5 O/U, averaging under 46 points per game.
- Five of the last eight Bills' games at home have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the Bills' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Cardinals were an under machine in 2023 on the road (2-5-1).
Overall
Last year, we saw the Bills consistently play down to their competition. They were hardly ever a confident bet against vastly inferior teams, failing to put away bad teams like the Patriots, Chargers, Jets, and Steelers at times during the 2023 season. Their defense is a shell of its former self after injuries took their toll last year. Linebacker Matt Milano is back on IR. Von Miller hasn’t been the same since his injury.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals team overall is vastly underrated on both sides of the ball.
This team played competitive football last season under Jonathan Gannon despite a depleted roster with nothing to play for. In their last seven games, the Cardinals went 5-3 against the spread. They beat the Steelers and Eagles on the road.
I fully expect Gannon to get even more out of this bunch in 2024 after all the improvements they have made on both sides of the football. Marvin Harrison Jr., Max Melton, Evan Brown, and Jonah Williams will all be key contributors.
This pass defense was underrated last year. Entering Week 18, the Cardinals allowed the second-fewest receptions to tight ends. They have also faced the third-fewest targets to WRs. Over the last four weeks of the year, Arizona allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.
Part of that is because the Cardinals were so bad against the run. But that's exactly why the under is the other play I love in this matchup. The Joe Brady-led Bills offense wants to run the football, which they will do in this exploitable matchup against a suspect run defense to not put as much pressure on Josh Allen and all his new receivers.
I also expect the Cardinals to do the same. They will run the football with a healthy James Conner, just like they did down the stretch after Kyler Murray came back into the lineup last season. Based on the quarterbacks under center, this game looks like a shootout, but the offensive philosophies from both sides suggest a lot of rushing attempts that will eat up the clock and result in fewer total points.
The fact that I think this game is going to be lower scoring also plays into taking the Cardinals +6.5 as they look to hang around a team that failed to put inferior teams away in 2023. And I'd go as far as suggesting the Cardinals aren't even that bad of a team with a healthy Kyler Muray.
The last time Murray started the majority of an NFL season (2021, 14 games), the team was 9-5. The team opened 7-1 before Murray’s ankle injury derailed the Cardinals' momentum.
Props
- The Cardinals were a top-six unit against slot WRs in 2023. Khalil Shakir projects to mix in the slot in 2024, but his receiving prop is the highest among all the Bills WRs for Week 1 at 47.5 yards. The projection is coming HEAVY toward the under at 40.5. Last season, Shakir went over this number just twice in nine games after Brady took over play-calling duties.
- Conner saw fewer than 12 carries just once after returning to the starting lineup back in Week 10. I don't expect rookie RB Trey Benson to have a meaningful role unless Conner gets hurt. Over on Conner and under on Benson.
My Picks