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Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bills vs. Chiefs.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 16 of the Chiefs’ last 22 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 23 home games.
  • The Bills have won 14 of their last 17 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 18-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 12-12 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 25 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 13 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 12-2 straight up and 7-7 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 8-6- ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have scored first in 12 of their last 13 games against the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in their last four road games against the Bills.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Chiefs’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line (13 of the last 18).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-2 toward the over at home this season (Under 47 points per game).
  • Each of the Bills' last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 4-0 toward the over this season (55 points per game).
  • Six of the Bills' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bills' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line. (16 of their last 22 road games)
  • Eight of the Bills' last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread as underdog (85%). Friends don't let friends bet on Buffalo this weekend. I really don't think we need to overthink this particular spot. You want to be on the Mahomes underdog side more often than not.

As for the total, I feel like we actually might get some fireworks for once. Buffalo has been an over machine at home dating back to the end of last season. And if there's any offense that can score on KC's top-tier defense, it's Josh Allen. If they get Amari Cooper back, he could be the missing piece that puts this game over the top.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills are 7-0 when Josh Allen has had a passer rating above 95.0 this season, and 1-2 when Allen has had a passer rating below 95.0. Chiefs have allowed an average 92.9 passer rating this season.

Props:

The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season.

Last week, the Chiefs receiving corps was led by Kareem Hunt, who caught seven of his 10 targets (25% target share) for 65 yards, averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a long gain of 26 yards. Ten targets for Kareem Hunt. Wild. It was a season-high in routes run for Hunt, so I do think there is some sticking power with his receiving role in Week 11. Hunt's 55% route participation was the highest for any Chiefs RB since Isiah Pacheco back in Week 1.

James Cook has been very boom-or-bust as a rusher this season. Five games with 70-plus rushing yards compared to four games with 45 or fewer yards. Given that KC has allowed one RB to get to 58 yards against them all season, Cook is looking like he is going to come short in the rushing departments this week.

My Picks:

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