Blazers vs. Celtics ATS Pick for 2/27 (Sports Betting)

Electric guard play will be on full display when the red-hot Blazers visit the Celtics on Wednesday night

Current Form

Blazers
Portland has come out of the All-Star break like gangbusters, winning all four games since the intermission. While Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum continue to be the steady hands, Jusuf Nurkic’s recent play has taken this team to another level. Over his last five games, the fifth-year center is averaging 17.2 points and 10.6 rebounds on 54.2 percent shooting from the field. Tonight marks the fourth game of a brutal seven-game road trip for the Blazers, who will play on one day’s rest (25-13 record in such situations).

Celtics
The 2018-2019 Celtics have officially hit rock bottom. Boston followed up a humiliating loss to Chicago with a lifeless performance against Toronto on Tuesday night. Outside of the first quarter, the Celtics barely competed in their 118-95 loss. Boston has lost all three games since returning from the All-Star break. However, the team is optimistic about turnings things around. The Celtics return home to the TD Garden, where they have won 14 of their last 17 games. “We’ve got a chance to redeem ourselves tomorrow,” said forward Marcus Morris, per Taylor C. Snow of Celtics.com. “We can’t really dwell on this loss man. We’ve gotta go back to Boston and get a win.” The Celtics have a record of 4-5 when playing without rest.

Edge: Even
The Celtics will be the more desperate side as they look to put this awful stretch of basketball behind them. Both teams come into tonight’s matchup fatigued. The Celtics are playing the back end of a back-to-back and the Blazers are playing their fourth game in seven days.

Statistical Breakdown

Blazers
Lillard and McCollum are the catalysts for Portland’s offensive attack. Coach Terry Stotts has constructed an offense designed for the two dynamic guards to score consistently out of the pick-and-roll. This offense is played at a slower pace (18th) and has been highly efficient (112.8 offensive rating). With the offense suiting Lillard and McCollum’s strengths as isolation scorers, a majority of the team’s scoring comes from unassisted jumpers. Portland ranks fifth in percentage of unassisted field goals made (45.4), second in percentage of unassisted three-pointers made (23.1), and 26th in assist percentage (54.6). The Blazers are also eighth in percentage of points from mid-range (12.1).

Portland excels on the offensive glass. Led by Nurkic, the Blazers are fifth in offensive rebounds per game (11.4) and third in offensive rebounding percentage (25.6). Success on the offensive glass has led to scoring the fourth-most second-chance points per game (14.6).

Defensively, they combat their limited personnel by playing extremely conservative. Portland drops everyone back in its pick-and-roll coverage to protect the paint. However, this leaves the team vulnerable to the three-point shot. Subsequently, the Blazers are eighth in opposing points in the paint per game (46.9) but 26th in opposing three-point percentage (36.4).

Celtics
The Celtics’ offense is much improved from the beginning of the year. Boston currently has the 11th-highest offensive rating (111.7) and the NBA’s eighth-most efficient offense. Crisper ball movement has led to higher quality shots opening up. Boston manufactures a majority of its offense from three-pointers. The Celtics are second in the league in percentage of points from threes (34.8), third in three-pointers made per game (13.1), and sixth in three-point percentage (37.1).

Kyrie Irving continues to have a masterful season, averaging 23.5 points and 6.9 assists on 49.3 percent shooting from the field.

Boston’s defense remains the team’s backbone. The Celtics rank fifth in defensive rating (106.1) and seventh in opponent points per game (107). Boston’s roster is littered with versatile wing defenders who fit perfectly into the team’s “switch everything” system. This aggressive style of perimeter defense makes it difficult for jump-shooting teams to get off clean shots. Thus, the Celtics are third in opposing effective field-goal percentage (51.1), 10th in two-point percentage allowed (50.8), and sixth in three-point percentage (34.3).

Edge: Celtics
The Blazers are going to have their hands full. For starters, Boston has the type of physical defenders who can give Lillard and McCollum issues. Conversely, the Blazers don’t have anyone who can remotely stick with Irving on the perimeter. Secondly, the Celtics are an elite three-point shooting team and will have no problems exposing the Blazers’ porous three-point defense. Lastly, the Celtics are an above average rebounding team who will be able to limit Portland’s second-chance points.

Line Analysis

The opening line for this game was -3.5 Boston. Since then, the Celtics have received 56 percent of public betting action, and the line has dropped to -2.5. The reverse line movement signals that sharp bettors have initially sided with the Blazers. Both teams have fared well against the spread this year, with Portland going 34-26 and Boston going 31-30.

Edge: Celtics
Even though the sharps have initially backed the Blazers, there is still more value to be had on the Celtics’ low line. As only a one-possession favorite at home, Boston has inherent value given the rarity of this pricing. The low line additionally indicates a market inefficiency, as the oddsmakers have clearly overreacted to the Celtics’ recent skid.

Verdict: Celtics

Despite their recent struggles, the Celtics are still the side to back. The Blazers do not have the defensive personnel to limit the Celtics’ offensive strengths (three-point shooting and playing through Irving). On the other hand, Boston has a variety of aggressive defenders to agitate Lillard and McCollum. Furthermore, the Celtics will be eager to put their ugly stretch behind them and get a much-needed win at home. Take Boston at -2.5 in what should be an entertaining game.