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BMW Championship Betting Guide (PGA)

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Dustin Johnson (20/1) completely dominated the field at the Northern Trust, finishing at 30-under-par and winning in the tournament by 11 strokes. He became only the third player in history to finish at 30-under or better. It was the 22nd career PGA Tour victory for Johnson and his second win of 2020. Johnson has reclaimed his spot as the number one golfer in the world going into the next round of the playoffs.

Kevin Kisner and Russell Henley, featured in last week’s article, both cashed the top-10 bets. This came after Si-woo Kim cashed the top-10 bet at the Wyndham Championship the week prior. We will hope to get the momentum going as we head into the second last week of the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season.

The top-70 in FedEx Cup points will advance to the BMW Championship this week in Illinois. With the field size being cut down by 55 players, the player pool this week is considerably lower. This will be a no-cut event with every golfer guaranteed four rounds at Olympia Fields. Players will be doing their best to make it into the top-30 in FedEx Cup points in order to advance to the Tour Championship next week.

Here are the past five winners of the BMW Championship:

  • 2019 Justin Thomas  (-25)
  • 2018 Keegan Bradley (-20)
  • 2017 Marc Leishman (-23)
  • 2016 Dustin Johnson (-23)
  • 2015 Jason Day (-22)

Course Preview

Olympia Fields Country Club is a classical, tree-lined golf course that will play much more difficult than TPC Boston a week ago. It hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open, where Jim Furyk won the tournament, finishing at 8-under-par. There were only four golfers that week who shot under-par for the week. While this week could indeed have more favorable scoring conditions, it’s no doubt that this Par 70, 7,366-yard course will play much more like a Major tournament.

The North course at Olympia Fields will play host to all four rounds at the BMW Championship. The track features mid-sized Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens that are said to be very contouring. There are only two par 5s on the scorecard, and they both measure over 600 yards long. It won’t get too much easier on the Par 4s, as seven of them measure at least 450 yards. I expect a solid challenge for the golfers this week and no crazy 30-under final winning score on Sunday.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>175 yards)
  • Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)
  • Performance on Bentgrass/Poa Annua mixes
  • Opportunities Gained

Best Bets to Win (Odds courtesy of BetMGM)

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Justin Thomas (+1300)
The winner of the BMW Championship in 2019 has failed to crack the top-10 in two consecutive weeks for the first time this season. We can credit some of that failure to a cold putter. Thomas lost over four strokes with the flat stick last week at TPC Boston. Over the last 50 rounds, Thomas ranks second in strokes gained on Par 4s that measure between 450-500 yards. I expect some positive regression for JT as he hopes to heat up heading into the Tour Championship.

Daniel Berger (+2100)
Berger continues to produce week after week. In his last 10 events, Berger has seven top-10s, including a first, second, and two third-place showings. Last week at the Northern Trust, Berger finished third and ranked third in both strokes gained: off-the-tee, and putting. He has the all-around game to put up a good score this week and be in contention on the final day. Berger currently ranks 12th in strokes gained: putting, and this should help him on these very challenging, undulating greens.

Best Top-5 Bets

Scott Scheffler (+500)
Scheffler shot a 12-under round of 59 on Friday at the Wyndham Championship. His scoring upside is tremendous and in a non-cut event, it makes sense to roll the dice this week. In the last 36 rounds, Scheffler ranks fifth in birdies-or-better gained. He is long and accurate off the tee, the distance on many of these holes shouldn’t hinder him this week.

Matthew Wolff (+900)
The second-year Tour pro is heading into the second leg of the playoffs in some fine form. He has three top-25s in his last five outings, including an impressive T4 finish at the PGA Championship. Wolff currently ranks outside of the top-30 in the FedEx Cup standings, so he needs a good week to advance. The 21-year-old ranks fourth in opportunities gained over the last 36 rounds and will just need the putter to come through for him.

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Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.