Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 10 (2021)
Check out my best bets for Week 10 of the college football season!
- Week 9 Record: 6-4
- Season Record: 49-40-1
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Baylor (-6.5) @ TCU
Baylor has been one of the quietest strong teams in the country this season. Baylor’s only loss this season was on the road to Oklahoma State, and they are 6-2 ATS this season. Baylor wins games behind the strong running game that currently ranks 9th in the country averaging over 238 ypg with Abram Smith (126-930-11) and Trestan Ebner (89-562). TCU hasn’t been great against the run this season, sitting at 117th in the nation, allowing over 200 ypg, and are one of the worst teams ATS sitting at 1-6-1 on the season. The running game mismatch and TCU’s top RB Zach Evans status is in question gives me a lot of confidence in the Bears even in a road game. TCU also just parted ways with their Head Coach Gary Patterson who had been there since 2000 this week, looks like everything is adding up for a big Baylor win!
Miami (-10) vs Georgia Tech
It’s been a weird season for the Hurricanes, they lost their two best offensive players this season in QB D’Eriq King and RB Cam’Ron Harris, but they have pieced it together beat an impressive Pitt team last week. Tyler Van Dyke showed up on the road and threw for 426 yards and 3 TDs, Jaylon Knighton ran for 2 TDs, transfer WR Charleston Rambo had over 100 yards, and the defense got to Pickett 4 times for sacks and added an INT too. Georgia Tech is definitely on the right path in their rebuild under coach Geoff Collins with a BIG win against North Carolina and one-score losses to Clemson and Virginia. This could be a letdown spot for Miami, but with Georgia Tech losing 3 of their last 4 (only a 4 point win against Duke) and Miami trying to keep some momentum as they’re only 4-4 on the season and can’t afford to look past anyone. I think their foot stays on the gas and they win at home going away!
Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>
ULM (+3.5) @ Texas State
I’m going right back to ULM even after they didn’t come through for me last week. ULM should have beat that giant spread last week, but they started flat, and when they had a chance to score with 2 minutes left to beat the spread, App State recovered a fumble at the two and sat on it. From the ashes of my loss comes a new QB for ULM, Jiya Wright. He was 9/17 with 158 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs but was very impressive on the ground taking it 20 times for 91 yards and a TD. App State was just too much last week, but when Jiya Wright took over midway through the 2nd quarter, the difference was only 10 points in favor of App State. Even if Jiya Wright doesn’t have the impact I think he’s going to, ULM is playing Texas State, a team that’s 2-6 and ranks in the triple digits in scoring offense (111th 21.9 PPG), scoring defense, (116th 35.6 PPG) and rush defense (108th, 189 ypg). Texas State’s offense was on the struggle bus with starter Brady McBride down last week, 42 passing yards, and 0 points against ULL. McBride’s status is in question for this week. I like ULM either way, though.
Iowa (-11.5) @ Northwestern
Iowa isn’t playing their best football right now as they’ve lost 2 in a row after starting 6-0, but Northwestern is a slump buster for sure. Northwestern is 1-4 in conference play, and the losses have come at margins of 17 to MSU, 51 to Nebraska, 26 to Michigan, and 27 to Minnesota. Iowa may not be at their peak, but they still hold teams to 16.1 PPG and are in the top 20 in Passing and Rushing defense. Northwestern ranks post 100 in scoring, passing, and the bottom half of the country in rushing offense. Iowa is 5-3 ATS while Northwestern is 2-6, I want to go with the under, too, but the total of 40.5 is too low. This is an absolute beatdown for the Hawkeyes. They need to get back on track and not overlookNorthwestern after two straight losses. I’m not going to predict a shutout, but I don’t think Northwestern scores 3 TDs, so if Iowa gets to 28 points, this is a lock!
UTSA (-11.5) @ UTEP
UTSA is 7-1 ATS this season! UTEP is having a great season at 6-2 in record and ATS! Even though the records are close, the talent level is not. UTSA is undefeated and has faced a much harder schedule, ranked 86th, which isn’t tough, but UTEP at 6-2 have had the 126th ranked schedule. UTSA ranks higher than UTEP in every category except passing defense, and that is not a surprise because UTSA has won every game, so every team has had to either play point-for-point with them or catch up. The cherry on top of this game for me is that UTSA had an extra week to prepare for UTEP with a bye last week. They won’t be overlooking them because they play 1-7 Southern Miss. UTSA is the better team according to record, stats, roster, the eye test, and coming off a bye; this is an easy bet IMO!
Other Bets I like:
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern, Over 60.5
Missouri @ Georgia Under, 59.5
Wake Forest @ North Carolina, Under 76.4
North Texas (-5) @ Southern Miss
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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.