Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 4 (2021)
Check out my best bets for Week 4 of the college football season!
- Week 3 Record: 5-5
- Season Record: 17-12-1
Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>
Bowling Green @ Minnesota Over 51
I’m not going to try to sell you on Bowling Green being better or even a competent football team, but can they score twice? I think scoring twice is definitely in the realm of possibility for them, and that should make this over hit! The Gophers aren’t going to put up 70 points, but they’ve already shown they can score by putting up 30 points in all three games this season against teams that are WAY better than BG. Minnesota will get most of this themselves, so all we’re asking BG for is a little bit of help. The overwhelming majority is on the Over in this game, so I’m not alone on this one.
Arkansas (+5.5) vs. Texas A&M
For those of you that know me, this isn’t me just hating on A&M (although I’m sure that’s part of it). I actually like what the Razorbacks have been doing on offense, and I saw it against my Longhorns. This team has a tall task ahead of them blocking for RB Trelon Smith, but they have four returning starters and have won up front so far. KJ Jefferson doesn’t have a ton of experience, but I have more faith in him than what I’ve seen from TAMU QB Zach Calzada this season. The biggest factor might be that this game is being played in Dallas, which should favor Arkansas (Jerry Jones is an Arkansas grad). I’m counting on a mistake or two from Calzada and the Aggies, and even if they don’t cost them the game, it should make it close, and I’ll take the points for the Hogs.
UTSA @ Memphis Over 66.5
These are some very similar teams! G5 teams with some explosive offensive players, UTSA is tied for 29th in the nation with an average of 39.3 PPG, and Memphis is even better, ranked at 15 with an average of 42.7 PPG. Checking in on the defense, Memphis has played some tough games against Arkansas State and Mississippi State, giving up 32 PPG (110th). UTSA has been way more stout on defense, allowing only 14.3 PPG put their schedule has been against Illinois (103rd scoring offense, 22.8 PPG), MTSU (89th, 25.7), and FCS Lamar. I like the roadrunners straight up in this game, but not with the confidence I have for the over. Memphis has already played a game to 105 points with Arkansas State (55-50), and I see this game as slightly less explosive than that, and the public money is in very strong agreement with me, get this one as soon as you can if you’re with me!
Michigan State (-5) @ Nebraska
I know that Nebraska just came off a competitive game against a tough Oklahoma team but in my opinion, that says more about Oklahoma than it does Nebraska. Michigan State is coming off a game in which they DOMINATED Miami, Miami may not be the team we thought they were, but MSU went into Miami and put up 454 yards on the Hurricanes defense. The problem I have with Nebraska in this game is that they aren’t great on offense. If you cut out the 52 points they put up against FCS Fordham, they average 22 points a game. MSU has put up 38 points in both games they have played against P5 opponents while giving up 38 total points to their opponents. I’ll acknowledge that this could be a ‘let down’ spot after being ranked for the first time in almost two years, but I don’t think that beating this Nebraska team by five is asking a lot.
Arizona @ Oregon (-28.5)
I may not be able to figure out BYU, but Arizona has reverted to who we thought they were. Arizona is coming off a loss to FCS Northern Arizona, an embarrassment anyway you want to frame it. If that’s not enough to convince you, they also lost to San Diego State by 24 in Tucson. This game will be no problem for Oregon, we saw them beat Fresno State and Ohio State, and they are coming in clicking on all cylinders. Oregon beat FCS Stony Brook last week by 41. That is probably a similar score that we will see in this one.
Other Bets I like
- Missouri -1.5 @ Boston College
- FIU +10 @ Central Michigan
- Colorado State @ Iowa Over 44.5
- Buffalo -14 @ Old Dominion
- WVU +17 @ Oklahoma
Bet $10, Win $150 on any college football game regardless of outcome! >>
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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.