Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 9 (2021)
Check out my best bets for Week 8 of the college football season!
- Week 8 Record: 5-5
- Season Record: 43-36-1
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ECU (-8) vs South Florida
USF is having a bad year but they’re still 4-3 ATS. The lines have been monstrous against them, they were +28.5 against Florida and lost by 22, +23.5 against BYU and lost by 8 but they also didn’t cover a few big lines when they were +9 to NC State and lost 45-0 and +21.5 to SMU and lost by 24. The point is there’s no real trend for South Florida even though they are over .500 on ATS and they don’t match up well with ECU. ECU has been terrible against the pass this year (119th, 278.6 YPG) which should be great but USF is 113th in passing, even in the game USF won against Temple they only threw for 105 yards and in the bigger win against Florida A&M they only threw for 163 yards, their season-high is only 223 yards which 77 teams average more than. East Carolina does match up well against USF, ECU is 34th in passing and USF is 108th against the pass. I’m going to trust in the ECU offense here and lay the points.
Georgia (-14) vs Florida
Georgia has routinely thrashed teams and their record ATS is 5-2, the only spreads they didn’t cover were the -31.5 against South Carolina (40-13) and -21.5 against Kentucky (30-13). Florida is having issues at QB, Emory Jones is going to be starting but the popular school of thought is that Anthony Richardson is better. Richardson took over in the 2nd half against LSU last week and scored 4 TDs but had 2 INTs. Georgia is averaging a 32 point win this season and this is the lowest line they’ve had to cover all season. Georgia hasn’t even been winning with great offense (62nd passing and 39th in rushing) or turnovers (only plus 3) they are winning by good old-fashioned field position! Florida has a good roster and they did bow up against Alabama but Georgia is one of the most dominant defensive teams I’ve ever seen and I think they cover this easily.
App State vs ULM (+27.5) AND Over 57
These teams combine to average over 58 points in scoring defense already but the real reason I’m taking the over in this one is because of ULM’s offense over the last 3 weeks. ULM has been one of the worst offenses overall averaging only 21.4 PPG which is good for 109th in the country however, in the last 3 weeks the Warhawks have averaged 31 points which would be in the top 50. Chandler Rogers threw 2 TDs and the Warhawks scored on a WR pass in the 4th quarter of the Georgia State game and the next 2 games he started and ULM won. Not only did ULM win but they won against Liberty as 32.5 point underdogs and then beat South Alabama as 13.5 underdogs and both games went over. ULM is 5-2 in playing to the Over and this Rich Rod offense is humming. App State has some big wins this season but the only one this big was a 44-10 win over FBS Elon. I really like the ULM play and the over here.
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Clemson vs Florida State Under 47.5
I don’t know how this game is going to get to 48 points, Clemson isn’t going to let Florida State score and they aren’t going to score. Clemson has played to the Under 6 times in 7 games because they do this to everyone. The game that went Over for Clemson only did by a half-point, 47.5 in the 21-27 loss to NC State. Even in the other 2 losses, Clemson has stopped the opposing offense from scoring, they lost to UGA Week 1 10-3 and Pitt last week 27-17. Florida State is all over the place, great at rushing (13th) but really bad at passing (106th) which doesn’t match up well with Clemson who is 30th against the run, 52nd against the pass, and 3rd in scoring. Florida State has won 3 games in a row and might beat Clemson but Clemson controls the pace of every game and I expect this one to be slow and low scoring, only 2 games Clemson has played in against FBS opponents have gone over 40, this game will struggle to get there.
Other Bets I Like:
Ohio State -18.5 vs Penn State
Boise State -2.5 @ Colorado State
Syracuse -6.5 vs Boston College
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