British Open: PGA Best Weekend Picks (2024)

Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, and Ludvig Åberg are just a few of the many pre-Round 1 betting favorites who failed to conquer the rigors of Royal Troon. Names like Daniel Brown, Billy Horschel, and Dean Burmester find themselves inside the top-ten heading into Round 3.

Shane Lowry has looked sharp through the first two rounds, sinking a solid birdie putt on the 18th hole on Friday to jump to 7-under-par for the solo lead. Close behind in the outright winner betting market, despite sitting five strokes back, is pre-tournament betting favorite, Scottie Scheffler, who would have even shorter odds if not for a bogey on the final hole in Round 2. Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay are also strong contenders inside of the top-ten.

I’ve found three golfers to target in the outright winner betting market that can be classified as best bets heading into the weekend at Royal Troon. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ for more free plays and PGA Tour best bets throughout the weekend.

British Open: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are 1 unit, 0.50 unit, and 0.25 unit plays. Or one percent, half a percent, and a quarter percent of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Shane Lowry (+200)

Shane Lowry sits comfortably in the lead heading into the weekend at 7-under-par, looking to secure his second British Open win. Lowry ranks first in total strokes gained, including first on approach and second putting, converting 10 birdies to only two bogeys in difficult conditions. As the weather forecast is set to clear up, the Irishman is poised to continue hunting flag sticks and sinking putts.

+200 odds for a two-stroke lead over the field, while ranking first in total strokes gained is solid value, despite being the odds-on favorite, so let’s stake a unit on Lowry to continue his frenzied pace to wind up with the outright win at Royal Troon this weekend.

Justin Rose (+650)

Another golfer comfortable on links courses is undoubtedly Justin Rose. The veteran Englishman had the most impressive outing in Round 2, recording four birdies en route to going 3-under-par. Now, he’s only two strokes off the lead, with plenty of momentum to transfer into Saturday and Sunday.

Rose ranks third in total strokes gained this week, notably 12th in putting, 16th around the green, ninth off-the-tee, and 21st on approach. There’s been virtually no weakness visible in his game, so it’d be foolish to fade him at this price. A half unit stake returns over three units of profit, so let’s invest in Rose to continue playing great golf as he attempts to leap Lowry in Round 3.

Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

After a pedestrian outing in Round 1, Patrick Cantlay was one of very few in the field on Friday who turned in a 3-under-par performance. It’s been a bit of a down year for the Californian, who has numerous wins in his career, but a major title has eluded him up until now. Expect Cantlay to stay aggressive at Royal Troon with his ball-striking, scrambling, and putting.

Cantlay’s only weakness has been off-the-tee, losing 0.60 strokes in that metric, while sitting 11th or better on approach and scrambling. The putter has been a weapon instead of a liability, so at 18-1 odds, we’re going to sprinkle a quarter unit on Cantlay to win outright.

Joaquin Niemann (+4500)

Our most lucrative wager is backing Chilean and current LIV golfer, Joaquin Niemann, to keep his short game intact for the final two rounds. Niemann recovered from a quintuple bogey and wound up even par in Round 2, sinking six birdie putts, including four on the back-nine, to gain momentum into Round 3.

Niemann ranks top-50 in all strokes gained metrics, including 25th putting and 20th around the green. Recording an 8 on the par 3 “postage stamp” hole is the only reason Niemann’s odds aren’t 15-1 or shorter. Let’s sprinkle one final quarter unit on him to make a run at the top of the leaderboard.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.