Broncos vs. Falcons NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Broncos vs. Falcons.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos
Sides:
- Rookie QBs are a combined 21-15 ATS this season.
- The Broncos are 7-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (5-3 ATS last eight road games).
- They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
- The Broncos have won six of their last seven home games against NFC opponents.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
- Their opponents have scored first in four of the Falcons’ last five games.
- The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
- The Falcons are 10-15-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-6 straight up.
- The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons’ last 22 games.
- The Falcons are 5-6 ATS on the road, 3-5 ATS as road favorites, and 6-13 on the road straight up.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have won six of their last nine games.
- Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-9 at home overall).
- The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
- The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
Totals:
- The Broncos rank fourth in red zone defense.
- Five of the Broncos' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Broncos' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Broncos' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the Broncos’ last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Denver is 3-1 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 38 points per game.
- The Falcons are 4-6 O/U this season.
- Five of the Falcons’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Atlanta is 2-2 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging fewer than 50 points.
- At home, they are 2-4 O/U, averaging fewer than 46 points per game.
- Four of the Falcons’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
The Broncos haven't lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season. Bo Nix is 3-0 ATS as a favorite, and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to four games at home against the Falcons.
Atlanta's defense can't generate pressure, putting Nix in a great position to succeed in this matchup. According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons defense has generated the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (27.4%) while allowing opposing quarterbacks record an average time to throw of 2.79 seconds, the 18th-longest in the league.
The Broncos offense has allowed the 7th-lowest pressure rate (29.1%) this season, despite Nix averaging the 6th-longest time to throw (3.02 seconds) in the NFL.
The Falcons are a bottom-10 defense in any way you slice the data.
Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense remains a top-notch unit that is going to present problems for Kirk Cousins. No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed.
The Falcons have been covering spreads on the road this season, but they dropped their first road game last week. This is just the third time the Falcons have been underdogs this season, with them 1-1 ATS and straight up.
After opening the week thinking I'd side with the Falcons, I am shifting to the Broncos to win by a field goal margin.
Props:
According to Next Gen Stats, Darnell Mooney and Drake London are on pace to become the 3rd WR duo in the last 30 years to each rank in the top 8 in the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
The others to do so were HOF Marvin Harrison Sr. & Reggie Wayne in 2006, and HOF Randy Moss and HOF Cris Carter in 1999.
Bijan Robinson has had five consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards, the longest active streak in the NFL, and the longest by a Falcons player since Julio Jones had a 6-game streak in 2018 (Next Gen Stats).
Robinson has four straight games with at least 28 receiving yards. Denver just allowed 65 receiving yards to Kareem Hunt. You do the math.
All but one running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).
Falcons are very bad against inside tackles rushes - 29th in EPA per rush allowed - and every Broncos RB this season has averaged at least four yards per carry on inside tackle runs. Broncos rookie RB Audric Estime (albeit with a smaller sample size) is over 5 yards per carry on such rushing attempts this season.
Since Courtland Sutton's goose egg against the Saints, he has been red-hot-70-plus yards in three straight games.
My Picks: