Broncos vs. Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 5)
Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Broncos vs. Raiders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Sides:
- The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
- The Raiders are 10-3-1 ATS over their last 14 games.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.
- The Raiders have lost seven of their last nine road games.
- The Raiders have won each of their last eight games against the Broncos.
- The Broncos are 5-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (3-2 ATS last five road games).
- The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home underdogs.
Totals:
- Eight of the Raiders' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 13-8 toward the under.
- Four of the Raiders' last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Four of the Broncos' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Broncos' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Broncos’ last six games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Intriguing AFC West matchup this week between the Raiders and Broncos. Bo Nix is favored to win an NFL game for the first time in his career, as the Broncos give 2.5 points at home.
Denver's on a hot streak, upsetting two teams on the road in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders' headlines are more about their disgruntled wide receiver Davante Adams and head coach Antonio Pierce's social media practices. Good grief.
To make matters worse, Las Vegas' offense is completely outmatched against this elite Broncos defense. They rank first in EPA/play, first in yards per play, and third in points per game allowed on defense.
Denver blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, which spells potential trouble for Gardner Minshew. Although he has been very quick to release the ball this season, this will likely be the way he combats the pressure the Broncos send his way.
Regardless, I think the Raiders struggle to move the ball offensively.
I am much more hopeful for the Broncos offense.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos have been more effective on designed runs between the tackles (+44 rushing yards over expected, 4th) than those to the outside (-31 rushing yards over expected, 25th) this season.
The Raiders defense has allowed opposing ball carriers to generate +42 RYOE on designed runs between the tackles, the 4th-most in the NFL.
Javonte Williams had by far his best week of the season last season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry on 12 attempts in between the tackles. He showcased his broken tackle prowess with 47 yards after contact.
Vegas has shown leaks against the run all season, and I think Denver's ground game builds off last week. All four RBs that the Raiders have faced this season have gone OVER their projected rushing total.
The trends heavily suggest fading the Raiders on the road (4-7 on the money line as road underdogs), so I'll take Denver to win by three to extend their winning streak to three games.
Even if I don't love Bo Nix, I love the Broncos’ defense and the coaching matchup of Sean Payton against Pierce.
These teams averaged 37 points scored in two matchups last season, so I don't see a ton of value on the O/U at 36 points. These teams are a combined 3-5 toward the O/U, averaging 36.5 points per game.
Player Props:
Alexander Mattison has scored a touchdown in three of the Raiders’ last four games.
Tre Tucker has scored a touchdown in each of the Raiders’ last two games.
Jakobi Meyers caught five of 10 targets for 49 yards (42% target share, 52% air yards share, and two RZ) in Week 4. No Davante Adams (week-to-week with a hamstring injury), so Meyers immediately stepped into an alpha target role. But.... he also had a season-low slot snap rate last week. He is the most likely candidate to get the Patrick Surtain lockdown treatment this week. Tucker will get some as well on the outside. Ie. We should expect a massive week from rookie tight end Brock Bowers as the primary focus of the Raiders pass attack.
Bowers has 40-plus yards in three of his four games played this season. And last week, he should have posted a much better stat line than his 2 for 19 stat line would suggest. He dropped a deep pass on the first play of the game that would have gone for 30-plus yards from the get-go. On the next play, he was targeted again for 8 yards, but it was called back due to a penalty.
My Picks: