Browns vs. Bengals NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)

Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Browns vs. Bengals.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week X Betting Primer>>

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
• The Browns have lost seven of their last eight games.
• The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
• The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 4-1 as home underdogs.
• The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games.
• Cleveland is 8-3 on the ML at home.
• The Bengals are 13-6 ATS on the road.
• The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with losing records.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC North opponents.

Totals:

• Six of the Browns' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Browns' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eleven of the Browns' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Browns are 13-10-1 toward the over in their last 24 games.
• Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.
• Four of the Bengals’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Bengals' last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Bengals' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line

Overall:

The Browns’ defense showed up big last week against a talented Eagles unit, giving their team a chance to win in Week 6. Alas, Deshaun Watson's woes continue to plague the Browns offensively, and losing No. 1 WR Amari Cooper in a trade to Buffalo won't make the offense function any better.

The Browns offensive line is still a mess, and it remains to be seen how impactful Nick Chubb’s return will be. If anything, I'd expect to see him just active to inspire his teammates, regardless of his actual on-field play/usage. Jerome Ford will be out, setting up this backfield to be spearheaded by D'Onta Foreman/Pierre Strong Jr., with Chubb eased back into action.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Wednesday that there is no exact number of snaps or touches the team has set for Chubb in Sunday’s game against the Bengals, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.

The Browns’ defense tends to play much better at home, and they have a strong track record against this Bengals offense. Joe Burrow is 0-4 at Cleveland since 2020. Burrow's struggles against the AFC North have been very apparent, given Cincy has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC North opponents.

Their second AFC North matchup of the season on the road will be no cakewalk offensively.

But ultimately, the Bengals' explosive game-breakers, like Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown, will be the difference in this contest. Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns have allowed the 3rd-most yards due to missed tackles this season (329). They have also allowed explosive plays on the ground at the 6th-highest rate in the league (14.7%) despite contacting rushers behind the line on 43.5% of rushes (7th-highest).

I also like the Bengals’ defense against Watson. Every team Cleveland faces increases its defensive pressure rate tenfold. Per Next Gen Stats, Watson has been sacked on 12.4% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the league. Watson has taken 31 sacks, the most in the NFL by 11. Watson has accumulated -61.0 EPA on sacks, the fewest EPA on sacks through Week 6 since 2016 (next closest this season: Caleb Williams, -38.3).

I also think the Bengals' improvements on defense last week should not go unnoticed. They are finally getting their defensive line healthy, which should improve their run defense in this matchup. If the Browns can't run the ball effectively, I'm very skeptical this offense will succeed, even against a poor Bengals defense.

Divisional matchups between familiar opponents can always turn into close contests, so I won't pick sides here. Ultimately, I think the Bengals will pull through with a big play or two, but I am not expecting this to be a pretty win.

With the trends highly backing over on both sides, I'll side with regression kicking in on the under. Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 8-3 toward the under at home.

Props:

Tight end David Njoku saw seven targets (30.4% Target share), hauling in five receptions for 31 yards, with a long catch of 27 yards in Week 6. Njoku had one red zone target but did not make a catch or score. Njoku ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Jerry Jeudy’s targets have gotten nuked since Njoku returned. Well, at least that was the thesis before Amari Cooper got dealt to the Bills. There's a massive target and air yards share gap in this offense now with Cooper out of the way. I'd expect Jeudy/Njoku to take on the majority of targets (from Watson, keep in mind), while Cedric Tillman should also see expanded work.

Simply put, this 3.5 catches line for Njoku is way too low, given the loss of Cooper. He’s gone over this mark twice in three games despite not playing a full allotment of snaps in his first two games. Njoku is practicing in full and should be a huge part of the Browns’ passing game for Week 7 against the Bengals. Njoku has at least 3.5 catches in 13 of his last 15 games played.

My Picks:

• Under 42.5
• David Njoku OVER 3.5 receptions