Browns vs. Rams: NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Browns vs. Rams.
NFL Betting Primer: Browns vs. Rams
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
The Rams have gone just 4-5-2 ATS this season. Their 4 covers? Seattle twice and Arizona twice.
Against offenses not-named the Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season. Only thrice (Both vs Seattle and Arizona) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
If it's not an NFC West Bird Team they are facing, the Rams have been tough to back in the betting streets. Everybody else they have struggled to beat and compete with.
The Rams have also failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games at SoFi Stadium following a win.
The Rams are 2-5 straight up when they rush for less than 100 yards on offense. They are also 3-6 when they allowed 200-plus passing yards.
Meanwhile, the Browns have won each of their last seven games following a loss. They are the flip-floppers, flopping after wins and coming out on top after losses.
And it's hard to argue this is a great spot for the Rams offense compared to last week. The Browns defense runs laps around the Cardinals’ horrible unit, although the injuries to Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are super concerning.
Also, the Browns defense has been a different animal defensively on the road than at home. All 3 of their legitimate losses have been on the road, while their defense has allowed 24-plus points in each away contest. Each of the Browns’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Browns' average scoring margin is +2.7. Aside from the blowout loss to the Ravens/Broncos earlier this season and last week, they haven't lost any game by more than 4 points (all road losses).
They have won 100% of their games decided by 3 points or less (likely not sustainable). All their wins have been blowouts (21, 24, 27 margins of victory) or super close games decided by an FG or less.
This team tends to play other teams tight every single week, even if they don't win.
On the surface this seems so simple to just take the Rams at home against a Browns team that could be trotting out Joe Flacco at quarterback if Dorian Thompson-Robinson misses due to a concussion. But the line has moved from -4.5 to -3.5 for the Rams. Is it just as simple as the Browns finding a way to win when nobody expects it - as they have seemingly done all year? They are 2-3 as an underdog this season.
There's just too much going on in this game for me to confidently back either side. The Rams can't deliver against teams not-named the Seahawks/Cardinals. They don't perform well after wins. The Browns DO perform extremely well after losses, but they might start their fourth QB of the year in Week 13. Their defense has been bad on the road (but is Sofi a road game…hmm) and they are dealing with injuries to key defenders. Unless we get more clarity on Garrett/Ward playing, I'm staying away from sides here.
As for the total, when in doubt take the under.
The Browns are 7-4 toward the under this season, while 8 of the 11 last games have gone under the total for the Browns. But as I cited before, hardly a SMASH under with how the Browns defense has underwhelmed on the road.
The Rams are 4-2 toward the under over their last 6 games. Even with Cooper Kupp healthy, they were hitting more unders than overs.
For props: This one comes courtesy of the Prizepicks Cheat Sheet. I mentioned the Matthew Stafford less than on his passing yards last week, and it came through with flying colors. Take less than Stafford's bloated passing yards prop at 239.5 passing yards - a number he hasn't hit in six straight games. The Browns defense ranks first in fewest passing yards allowed per game this season at 142 yards...Even with the defensive injuries, I think Stafford goes under this number.
My Picks
- Under 40
My Props
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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