Buccaneers vs. 49ers: NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Buccaneers vs. 49ers.
NFL Betting Primer: Buccaneers vs. 49ers
San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers' defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. Their secondary is a mess, and Will Levis was unable to take advantage of that a week ago. I don't expect Brock Purdy to miss a beat with all his playmakers healthy at his disposal.
Tampa Bay ranks last in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. No team has a higher third-down conversion rate than the 49ers at home (56%).
TB's defense is all about bending but not breaking, and that will probably not work against the 49ers. SF's red-zone offense ranks 6th best in the NFL.
The Buccaneers have covered four straight road games. But who did they play? MIN, NO, BUF and HOU. SF is a different beast.
Take the 49ers even with them laying a huge number. When SF was healthy to start the year, they were routinely putting up 30-plus points at home winning by double-digits.
As for the total, it's been 3 straight overs at home for the 49ers. But 6 of the last 7 Bucs games have gone under. The average total of these two teams is 41.5 or the current O/U set line. Likely a shy away spot for me as it could either way by one field goal or red-zone possession.
Both teams should face a lot of raw passing attempts, with both units facing top-5 pass rates on defense this season. Therefore, I prefer tackling some of the players props with some receivers/quarterbacks.
Bet the under on Cade Otton. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to TEs (33.4).
But their defense has also allowed 60-plus receiving yards to 8 different WRs over the last 6 games. The over has hit in 7/9 of games for opposing No. 1 WRs facing the 49ers, including four straight games with 100 yards-plus allowed. Mike Evans has gone over 55.5 yards in 6 of 9 games played this season (67%), hitting the over in 3 of his last four. Projections have him slated for nearly 66 receiving yards.
My Picks:
- 49ers -11.5
My Props:
- Brock Purdy over 247.5 passing yards
- Baker Mayfield over 231.5 passing yards
- Brandon Aiyuk over 65.5 receiving yards
- Mike Evans over 55.5 receiving yards
- Cade Otton under 26.5 receiving yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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