Buccaneers vs. Falcons NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 8)

Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Buccaneers vs. Falcons.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

• The Buccaneers have won six of their last nine games as underdogs.
• But they are just 3-4 ATS as home underdogs.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
• The Buccaneers have won each of their last five games following a loss.
• Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last nine games.
• The underdogs have won seven of the last 14 Buccaneers' games.
• The underdogs have won the first half in five of the Buccaneers' last six games.
• The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS against the NFC South, with the only "loss" against Atlanta in Week 5, which went into overtime.
• The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Buccaneers.
• The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-5 as home favorites on the money line.
• The Falcons are 8-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-6 straight up.
• However, the underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons' last 19 games.
• The Falcons are 4-5 ATS on the road, 2-4 ATS as road favorites, and 5-12 ATS on the road straight up.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have won four of their last six games.
• Atlanta is 9-5 on the money line as home favorites (14-9 at home overall).
• The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 5-9 ATS.
• The Falcons have won six of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

• Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Tampa Bay is 5-2 O/U this season (3-1 at home, averaging 52.3 points per game).
• On defense, they have allowed the 22nd most points per game (24.1).
• Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 40 points total at home since 2023 (4-8 record toward the over).
• Atlanta is 2-3 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
• The Falcons are 3-4 O/U this season.
• Five of the Falcons' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Atlanta is 1-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.

Overall:

Not often do we see a Baker Mayfield-led squad catching points at home. But we all know why the lines flipped from Tampa Bay -2.5 to Atlanta -2.5 after Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers lost their two top WRs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But they also lost cornerback Jamel Dean.

Still, I can't help but think this is a major overreaction by the betting market. It's a five-point swing, which is typically the only kind of movement if there is an injury to a quarterback.

On a short week, Tampa Bay is facing an uphill battle without its top two receivers. But it still has its quarterback, who often thrives in this underdog situation. I also want to note that the Buccaneers suffered a myriad of defensive injuries before their Week 2 matchup at Detroit. They won outright on the road.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have played the majority of their games at home. They have only played two road games against Philadelphia and Carolina. They should have lost to the Eagles, and Carolina was a one-score game entering the fourth quarter.

The Falcons’ defense can't be trusted even against a depleted Buccaneers WR room.

Tampa Bay can also choose to run the ball more against the Falcons, which they did effectively in Week 5. They rushed for 160 yards at over six yards per carry, fourth in rushing yards above expectation.

Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (5th-most yards allowed), using its defense in that formation at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game). Rachaad White is averaging 5.2 yards per carry against inside tackles this season.

White has also averaged 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games, hitting a season-high against the Falcons back in Week 5 (72 rushing yards).  Bucky Irving is not expected to play, setting the stage for White to be a focal point of the Buccaneers offense. Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards).

Given the WR injuries, it would make sense for them to lean more on the surplus of RBs they have. When they throw, Mayfield should have ample time to dissect the Falcons secondary.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes (16) and interceptions (7) when not under pressure this season. The Falcons’ defense doesn't generate pressure, but it has been able to keep offenses in front of it, with the sixth-lowest air yards per attempt faced and seventh-fewest yards after the catch.

The Buccaneers will have to grind this game out rather than win in high-flying fashion. Note that the Falcons are solid at defending the short-quick passing game (7th-lowest EPA/pass attempt) but have struggled against long and intermediate throws. That is not necessarily an advantage for Mayfield, who has been at his best in ripping the ball underneath. I don't think we see a lot of explosive passing plays from Tampa Bay.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers have generated a league-high +238 yards after the catch over expected (YACOE) this season (1,188 actual yards after the catch, 1st).

Chris Godwin had accounted for +112 of the Buccaneers +238 total YACOE (47.0%). Rachaad White is the only other Buccaneers receiver to have generated more than +50 YACOE this season. The Falcons’ defense has allowed a league-low 4.1 yards after the catch per reception this season, half a yard fewer than the next closest defense (Broncos, 4.7). The Falcons (-6) and Bears (-8) are the only defenses to have allowed fewer yards after the catch than expected this season.

White has the 7th-highest running back target share this season.

We saw Atlanta's passing offense succeed in this matchup back in Week 5, but they only posted a +3 pass rate over expectation. The last two weeks, it's been more rushing with a 5% pass rate over expectation. I just want to caution those expecting Cousins to drop another 500 passing yards in this matchup. I still think, at their core, the Falcons want to run the ball, and that means I lean toward betting the under at 46.5 points.

Note that this Week 5 matchup closed at 44 points when both teams were healthier playing indoors.

Give me the Buccaneers as an underdog, and the under on NFC South rematch. In-season divisional rematches don’t often live up to the hype compared to the first matchups. Trust the process.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers’ defense has stacked the box (8+ defenders) on a league-high 36.7% of their designed runs faced this season.

The Buccaneers have also allowed a league-high +156 rushing yards over expected on designed runs when stacking the box (324 actual yards). Tyler Allgeier (10.7%) and Bijan Robinson (12.6%) have faced a stacked box at the 5th-lowest and 8th-lowest rates this season, respectively, among 53 running backs with at least 35 carries.

Tyler Allgeier (50.0%) and Bijan Robinson (49.0%) rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, by highest success rate on carries directed outside the tackles to the weak side of the formation this season among 20 running backs with at least 15 such carries this season (Alvin Kamara, 64.5%).

Allgeier has gained more yards than expected on 70.0% of his carries outside the tackles to the weak side, the highest rate among the same group of 20 running backs. Robinson's 51 such carries are 15 more than the next closest player (Jordan Mason, 36). Robinson gained 44 yards, including +28 yards over expected, on five such carries in Week 5 against the Buccaneers (8.8 YPC).

Sterling Shepard (60.7%), Jalen McMillan (43.5%), and Trey Palmer (54.5%) each had vertical routes account for more than 40% of their total routes run this season.

Shepard's 60.7% vertical route rate is the highest among all wide receivers, with at least 100 routes run (next closest: Tyreek Hill, 55.3%). Shepard, McMillan, and Palmer have combined for just two receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown across their 151 collective vertical routes run this season.

My Picks:

• Buccaneers +2.5
• Under 46.5
• Rachaad White OVER 3.5 receptions
• Rachaad White OVER 43.5 rushing yards