Buccaneers vs. Falcons: NFL Thursday Night Football Preview (Week 5)

Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers looked dominant during their 33-16 win against Philadelphia in Week 4, jumping out to a 24-0 lead halfway through the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons won an NFC South divisional bout at home against the New Orleans Saints during Week 4, scoring two defensive touchdowns and converting a walk-off field goal to grab a 26-24 victory to improve to 2-2.

Baker Mayfield has had a strong start to his 2024 campaign, falling short only once against a stingy Broncos pass defense in Week 3. Kirk Cousins has left a bit to be desired for the Falcons, although they did steal a win on the road against the Eagles thanks to Cousins’ late execution on the final drive in Week 2. We’re in store for a competitive divisional matchup on Thursday night from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

We got hooked on Brandon Aubrey’s missed field goal to fail covering Dallas -5.5 on the point spread during Thursday Night Football in Week 4. Let’s bounce back with a win tonight between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Preview

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-105) | Atlanta -1.5 (-115)  

Moneyline: Tampa Bay (+110) | Atlanta (-130) 

Total: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta offense have struggled in the red zone this season, settling for field goals or committing turnovers. forcing their defense to carry the load. The Falcons’ pass defense is its strength, led by safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III, while allowing at least 128 rushing yards in all four games this season.

Tampa Bay’s offense will be shorthanded on Thursday night, playing without wide receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan, while RT Luke Goedeke has also been ruled out. We’ve seen the Buccaneers take advantage of porous pass defenses, like Washington and Philadelphia, but they did struggle to throw on a weaker Lions secondary, despite pulling off the 20-16 road win in Detroit back in Week 2.

Atlanta is the healthier team in this Thursday Night Football matchup but their offense must start finishing drives and avoiding miscues. The Falcons have yet to clear 235 passing yards in a game this season, while failing to record more than 89 rushing yards during three of their four outings. RB Bijan Robinson should remain a focal point against Tampa Bay’s run defense, which is allowing 5.0 YPC and seven rushing touchdowns, both bottom-five metrics in the league.

Tampa Bay has only given up one receiving touchdown and 5.3 net pass yards per attempt, so they are clearly more talented in their secondary versus stopping the run. Antoine Winfield is missing from their secondary though, while DT Calijah Kancey, a 2023 first-round draft pick, is also ruled out, exposing an already ineffective run defense.

It’s tempting to consider the point total under at 43.5, since we’ve seen the line drop from 44 to 43.5, but we could see some points in this matchup, especially with some key pieces out for Tampa Bay, while their prolific passing attack will challenge the Falcons’ secondary. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are difficult matchups to contain, plus the emergence of rookie RB Bucky Irving may create a good balance and effective play-action passing from Mayfield.

Tampa Bay has won six of their last seven games as underdogs, while the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games when favored against NFC teams. 74 percent of the public bets are on Atlanta to win outright at -130 moneyline odds, but 72 percent of the money is on Tampa Bay at +110. Last year, these teams went 1-1, with each home team losing outright by either a three or four-point margin.

Let’s bet on Tampa Bay to build off of their momentum generated against Philadelphia in Week 4 and improve to 2-0 on the road in 2024, beating a Falcons team that relied on defensive touchdowns to beat New Orleans in Week 4. Remember, Atlanta didn’t give up a touchdown to Pittsburgh at home but still lost 18-10 in Week 1, while only scoring three points in the second half at home against Kansas City to blow a half-time lead. Then, last week, no offensive touchdowns were scored. We’re backing the more talented offense to avoid miscues and stay productive on the road, while the Bucs’ defense should be able to contain a Falcons’ offense ranked 22nd in points scored this season.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Moneyline (+110)

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.