Buccaneers vs. Texans: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Buccaneers vs. Texans.
NFL Betting Primer: Buccaneers vs. Texans
Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Houston's last win was against an overrated Saints team before the team's bye week. C.J. Stroud was firing on all cylinders with the OL fully healthy. In his last 2 games played before the bye week, Stroud was the 4th-least pressured QB. Versus Carolina, he was also not pressured heavily. Over the last four weeks, he has been the 3rd-least pressured QB. But he was unable to will his way to a victory because the Texans only dropped back 27 times in Week 8. It was a season-low for Stroud in pass attempts as they dialed up a more aggressive rushing attack.
Makes sense given the Panthers' weaknesses versus the run, but it doesn't necessarily fit what the Texans do well on offense. I'd bet we see more of Stroud throwing versus the Buccaneers, who have the 3rd-highest pass rate faced on the road this season.
They also blitz at the third-highest rate. Music to Stroud's ears. Against the blitz this season, Stroud ranks second in yards per attempt and fourth in passer rating.
Houston is 4-1 versus the spread over their last five games. And all 3 of their wins have been by 7-plus points. Tampa has also struggled recently having dropped back-to-back games at home and 3 straight games since coming off their bye week.
The Texans have gone under in four of their last five games, which all featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. Tampa Bay is averaging 17.3 points per game (27th).
Tampa Bay boasts the league's No. 1 red zone defense. Houston's defense ranks 7th.
However, they rank 32nd on the third down conversion rate defensively. Teams can move easily on the Bucs between the 20s, but they tighten up in the red zone. Houston should be able to move the ball as they rank 7th in third-down conversion rate this season.
Houston's offense has struggled in the red zone this season ranking 26th in conversion rate. Tampa Bay's offense ranks 28th.
The Buccaneers' ability to hold teams at bay in the red zone has fueled their 6-1 record toward the under this season including five straight unders.
Think the breakdown of this game is pretty straightforward. Bet the under and the Texans at home.
In the two games where Tampa has not won the turnover battle, they are 0-2 straight up with an average defeat of 14 points. Houston ranks 1st in fewest giveaways allowed per game (0.6).
My Picks:
- Under 40
- Texans -2.5
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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