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Bucks vs. Suns: NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Picks for Sunday, July 11th (2021)

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We’re two games into the NBA Finals, and the Suns have a clear path to a championship. They’re up 2-0 and are sizeable betting favorites to win the series. However, the action will head to Milwaukee tonight, and the Bucks may find a way to capitalize on their home court.

Here are the top picks for the evening’s action.

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1. Deandre Ayton Over 15.5 Points | -110 at FD Sportsbook

The Phoenix Suns lost rotational center Dario Saric to a torn ACL in Game 1. Then, forward Torrey Craig went down with a right knee contusion in Game 2. While the team has listed him as probable for Game 3, Craig probably won’t see a full workload. For some perspective, Craig averaged 18.8 minutes per game with Phoenix in the regular season and 12.5 in the playoffs — and he got 16 minutes of action in Game 1.

The injuries in Phoenix’s frontcourt should force Ayton to see more playing time. The center played a playoff-high 42 minutes in Game 2, and he got 39 in Game 1 — considerably higher than his regular-season average of 30.6 minutes per game. He scored 14.4 points per game on that workload, good for 16.9 points per 36 minutes, which would be enough for him to cash this prop.

The strongest argument for Ayton is that the Suns probably can’t repeat their Game 2 showing tonight — they nailed the second-most three-point shots in NBA playoff history on Thursday! The Bucks should adjust, the Suns should regress, and Ayton should return to his high-scoring ways. He sailed over this total in three of his four matchups against Milwaukee this season, scoring 17 (Feb. 10), 20 (Apr. 19), 22 (Game 1), and 10 points (Game 2).

2. Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points | -108 at FD Sportsbook

I rode the over on Bridges’ points and three-point props to some big wins earlier this series, and I’m coming back for more. Sure, the sportsbooks have (belatedly) adjusted the line from 10.5 to 12.5 — that still isn’t high enough for me to stay away.

Bridges averaged 13.5 points per game in the regular season. He has even toasted the Bucks all year; he has posted totals of 15 (Feb. 10), 21 (Apr. 19), 14 (Game 1), and 27 points (Game 2) against them so far. His buckets have come from deep (Bridges went 13-for-23 from beyond the arc in those four games) and in transition, so even improved perimeter defense from Milwaukee may not be enough to keep him under this total. The Bucks give up the second-most points per game to small forwards, after all.

It’s also clear that Phoenix’s injuries have caused Bridges to get more work. The injuries to Saric and Craig should keep their rotation narrow tonight, and Bridges should see the usage necessary to hit the over for a fifth-straight game against the Bucks.

3. Bonus Plus Money Prop: Deandre Ayton Over 16.5 Points | +114 at FD Sportsbook

NBA Prop Bets

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.