Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Josh Allen vs. Kyler Murray. There should be plenty of fireworks Sunday in the desert.
While both teams boast winning records, they also contain plenty of flaws. But which team has the edge?Let’s breakdown this intriguing inter-conference showdown.
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 10 of the NFL >>
Details
- Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5
- Last Meeting: September 25, 2016 - Bills, 33-16
Game Odds
View consensus picks and notes from top betting experts for the Bills vs. Cardinals >>
Overview
As I mentioned above, there should be plenty of fireworks in this contest. Both quarterbacks are exciting, dual-threat players. On the flipside, both defenses have struggled against running quarterbacks this year.
In Arizona’s last two games, they’ve allowed Russell Wilson to run for 84 yards and let rookie Tua Tagovailoa rush for 35 yards in their most recent loss to Miami. On the other side, Buffalo has given up 179 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. Both Allen and Murray should be able to make plays with their legs all day in the desert.
Despite being known for defense throughout Sean McDermott’s tenure, the Bills have struggled defensively this season. They’ve given up the 10th-most points and are allowing 5.8 yards per play. Fortunately, Buffalo’s offense figured things out last week and should be able to pick up the struggling defense yet again.
Buffalo’s biggest weakness defensively is Arizona’s strength offensively. The Cardinals rank second in the league in rushing, while the Bills rank 27th in defending the run. The Cardinals defense ranks 14th against the pass, which isn’t great considering they’ve only faced one truly elite quarterback (Wilson) this season. I like the odds of both quarterbacks having huge days against two average defenses.
Both teams are also strong in the red zone. The Cardinals have scored 21 touchdowns in 28 trips (75%) inside the 20. Buffalo has been less efficient (61%), but have the second-most red zone scores in the league.
Trends
- The Bills are 12-8-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2017 under Sean McDermott.
- The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2019 under Kliff Kingsbury.
- The over is 7-2 in Bills game.
- The over is 2-6 in Cardinals game.
Bottom Line
This total is awfully high, but this game feels bound to go over. Arizona should be able to do anything it wants on the ground, while Buffalo has the firepower to answer with explosive plays.
While the over is my favorite bet in this game, I’d also lean on the Bills to cover and win straight up. Buffalo’s defense might be the weakest unit in this game, but there’s a big coaching disparity between McDermott and Kingsbury.
The pick: Over 56, Lean Buffalo +2
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.