Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys Odds & Game Pick
The second matchup of Thanksgiving Day features the surprising 8-3 Bills and the 6-5, NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys. The showcase in this game will be the Bills' third-ranked defense versus the Cowboy' first-overall offense.
Special Offer: Bet $1, Win $200, if ANY NFL Team Scores a Touchdown Thanksgiving Day >>
Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Cowboys -7.5; O/U 46.5. The spread has moved in favor of the Bills and the total has dropped one point.
- Current Line: Cowboys -6.5
- O/U: 45.5
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Start Time: 4:30 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 27, 2015 – The Bills defeated the Cowboys 16-6 in Buffalo.
View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Bills at Cowboys >>
Overview
The Buffalo Bills are easily one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season. They're currently 8-3, 7-3-1 ATS, and have the third-best record in the AFC behind only the Patriots and the Ravens. Buffalo is giving up just 288.6 yards and 15.7 points per game, both of which are good for third-best in the NFL. Their pass defense is also ranked third, giving up just 184.3 yards per game. One area where the Cowboys may have an advantage against Buffalo is rushing, as the Bills are giving up 104.4 yards per game on the ground. Even with the average rush defense, the overall defensive numbers are great from top to bottom.
And yet the betting public isn't showing Buffalo much respect. The Bills opened as seven-point underdogs to the Cowboys who are just 6-5 and have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. A lot of that disrespect has to do with the Bills' own schedule. They have beaten up on the worst teams in the league with their wins coming over the Jets, Redskins, Bengals, Giants, Broncos, and Dolphins twice. Their only good win was over the Titans in Nashville.
The Cowboys come into this Thanksgiving matchup in desperate need of a win to stay ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East. It is unlikely that either the Cowboys or Eagles will be able to catch the Vikings or Seahawks in the Wild Card race, so they will need to win the division to make the playoffs. Even after their weak performance last week in the sloppy weather against the Patriots, the Cowboys still lead the NFL in total yards and passing yards on the season. They're scoring 26.8 points per game, good for sixth in the league, and are eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game.
The Cowboys' defense ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and their sixth-ranked secondary could cause problems for Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The rush defense is ranked in the middle of the league and could struggle against the Bills' rushing duo of rookie Devin Singletary and veteran Frank Gore, who last week became the NFL's third-leading all-time rusher.
Trends
- The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS this season.
- The Cowboys are 7-4 ATS this season.
- The total has gone under in eight of the Bills 11 games this season.
- The total has gone over in seven of the Cowboys' 11 games this season.
- The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS and 4-1 SU on the road this season.
- The Cowboys are 3-2 ATS and SU at home this season.
- The total has gone under in four of the Bills' five road games.
- The total has gone over in three of the Cowboys' five home games.
Prop Bet
Dak Prescott under 266.5 passing yards
This is a trap. The Cowboys are a very public team, everyone knows how good their offense is, and despite how bad last week's performance was, many know it was mostly due to the abysmal weather in Foxborough. However, the Bills have only allowed over 266 yards twice all season, and both times were to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Both of those games were also the only two times the Bills scored more than 30 points this season, so it's not surprising the opposing quarterback would rack up yards. The Cowboys' defense should keep the Bills from scoring a lot, which means Dak won't have to throw as much. The Bills' defensive weakness is against the run. Expect the Cowboys to focus on Zeke this week, not Dak.
Bottom Line
The Bills aren't as good as their record indicates, with only one win all season coming against a team with a winning record, but the Cowboys aren't the same team they were last season. Their offense has put up great numbers but has primarily done so against weak defenses. While the Bills only have one win over teams above .500, the Cowboys have zero wins over such teams. It's Thanksgiving Day, and the Cowboys are home on the short week, so they should get the win, but the Bills' third-ranked pass defense should be able to do enough to slow down the Cowboys' passing attack. Bettors aren't respecting the Bills for their schedule, which is understandable, but why are they respecting the Cowboys? Cowboys win, but it's going to be closer than many think.
FanDuel Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.