Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Odds and Game Pick (2020)
This year's late-season Saturday NFL action begins with a pair of AFC teams facing off high up in the Rocky Mountains. The surging Buffalo Bills will look to keep their momentum going as they take on a Denver Broncos team that many believe to be more talented than their record suggests. The betting odds and sharp picks give the nod to the visitors for this game.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Bills -5.5; O/U 48
- Current ATS Line: Bills -6.5
- Current Over/Under: 50
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High - Denver, CO
- Start Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
- Television: NFL Network
- Last Meeting: November 24, 2019 - The Bills defeated the Broncos 20-3 in Orchard Park.
- Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
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BUF
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-5.5
-114
|
o50
-106
|
-250
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
DEN
|
+5.5
-106
|
u50
-114
|
+205
|
View consensus picks from experts for Bills at Broncos >>
Overview
If there was any doubt that the Bills are for real, they squashed it last week with an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Sunday Night Football spotlight. Now, Josh Allen and the high-powered Buffalo passing attack must regroup and be ready to battle not only a tough Broncos defense but also the chilly Denver temperatures. Stefon Diggs has been every bit the star receiver that the Bills hoped they were acquiring in the offseason trade. Buffalo will need Diggs, Cole Beasley, and possibly even rookie Gabriel Davis to be on top of their games in this one against the Broncos' top-10 adjusted pass defense.
Offensively, the Broncos are simply teeming with young talent that is just waiting to be unleashed. Whether Drew Lock is the answer at quarterback going forward or not, he will be under center for Saturday's contest and will look to stay hot after last week's four-touchdown performance. Expect Denver's RB tandem of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay to be leaned on heavily as the Broncos will likely want to keep the ball away from Buffalo's explosive offense.
Trends
- Bills 2020 Betting Trends: 8-5 ATS; 8-4-1 to the Over
- Broncos 2020 Betting Trends: 8-5 ATS; 6-7 to the Over
- The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings against the Broncos (5-1 straight up over that span).
- The Under has hit in 4 of the Broncos’ six home games this season.
- The Under is 13-2 in the Broncos' last 15 games against teams averaging 27 points per game or more.
Prop Bet
Bills Team Total: Under 28 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Bills are averaging 27.6 points per game on the season coming into Saturday's contest. For as impressive as Josh Allen and the offense have looked in the majority of games this season, I like the Under on Buffalo's team total here. A letdown spot is more than possible following last week's huge win, not to mention the fact that the Bills now have to travel across the country and play at elevation. The Broncos defense has played quite well all season considering the massive number of injuries they've had to overcome. Allen is still prone to making poor decisions, and if Denver’s defensive front seven can control the line of scrimmage, this could come into play on Saturday. Given that taking Under 28 total points for the Bills this week is essentially just a bet that they'll score fewer than their season per game average, I like the play.
Bottom Line
The point spread for this game has moved in favor of the road favorite, rising a full point from the opening line of Bills -5.5. While the line did touch 7 briefly, it was quickly bought back down to the current 6.5. The total has trended up as well, rising two points from the opening over/under line of 48 to an even 50.
While this certainly feels like a game that the Bills are capable of winning handily, many bettors were saying the same thing about the Broncos game at Kansas City two weeks ago. Denver held tough in that one, largely thanks to their defense. Fans may not be allowed to attend, but Mile High presents a distinct home field advantage regardless of crowd noise due to the elevation.
I'm not willing to bet against the freight train that is the Buffalo Bills, but I don't see them running up the score at will against the NFL's 13th ranked defense, per Football Outsiders' adjusted efficiency metrics. With the total surging up two points from opening, now is the perfect time to buy back in the other direction.
Pick: Under 50 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.