Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick
Wild Card Weekend kicks off with a matchup between the 10-6 Bills and the AFC South champion Houston Texans. Both teams are looking for playoff success after achieving none of late. The Texans have never made it out of the Divisional Round, but are 3-2 all-time in the Wild Card Round. The Bills have not won a playoff game since 1995 and only scored three points in their last appearance in 2017.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Texans -3.5; O/U 40.5. The line has moved one point in favor of the Bills and the total has moved up three points.
- Current Line: Texans -2.5
- O/U: 43.5
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Start Time: 4:35 pm ET
- Television: ABC/ESPN
- Last Meeting: October 14, 2018 – The Texans defeated the Bills 20-13 in Houston.
Overview
By the time the Texans and Bills took the field in Week 17, both teams had already solidified their positioning in the playoffs. Because of that, both teams elected to rest most of their key players, essentially giving each team a bye week heading into the playoffs. The extra rest probably benefited the Texans more than the Bills since they were able to activate J.J. Watt for the first time since October 27. With that said, Will Fuller is a game-time decision and may be unlikely to play after battling a groin injury at the end of the regular season.
Houston’s offense enters this week’s game with a balanced attack that will try to wear down a strong Bills’ defense. While everyone was talking about Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller all season, Carlos Hyde very quietly rushed for 1,070 yards, ranking 13th in the NFL. The run game will likely be key to the Texans’ game plan because if there is one possible weakness on the Bills’ defense, it is their rush-defense. Buffalo gives up 103.1 yards per game on the ground, still 10th best in the league, but a number that is a lot easier to attack than their fourth-ranked pass defense, which is giving up just 195.2 yards through the air. The Bills also finished the season ranked second in points allowed per game with 16.2.
In addition to J.J. Watt, the Texans should also be getting cornerback Bradley Roby back after he sat out Week 17 with a hamstring injury. They will need to use the pressure that Watt can provide to try to force Josh Allen into turnovers in his first career playoff game. The Texans have the second-worst turnover differential out of any team in the playoffs, with only the Eagles recording a worse number.
While the Bills will rely heavily on their defense to keep them in the game, they will need production from Josh Allen and an offense that scored only 19.6 points per game, the worst number out of all teams that qualified for the postseason. Allen showed great improvement in his second season under center, but will be playing in the biggest game of his career thus far. Could he show similar weaknesses to those displayed by Watson in his first career playoff start last season against the Colts, a game which the Texans lost 21-7 at home? The offense won’t be entirely on the shoulders of Josh Allen, as the Bills will look to use rookie running back Devin Singletary to wear down the Texans’ defense and open up play-action opportunities to big-play threat, John Brown.
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Trends
- The Bills were 9-6-1 ATS in the regular season.
- The Texans were 7-8-1 ATS in the regular season.
- The total went under in 12 of the Bills’ regular-season games.
- The total went under in nine of the Texans’ regular-season games.
- The Bills were 6-1-1 ATS on the road in the regular season.
- The total has gone under in six of the Texans’ last nine games.
- The total has gone under in five of the Bills’ last six games.
- The Texans are 4-1 SU against the Bills in their last five meetings.
- The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Prop Bet
Bills over 20.5 (-110)
The Texans have been a solid team all season, but they have also consistently given up a lot of points. Throwing out the last game of the season since the starters sat, the Texans have given up 20 or more points in nine of their last 11 games. If you count the last game of the season, you can increase that trend to 10 of 12. If you look at the season as a whole, the Texans gave up 20 or more in 12 of their 16 games.
The Bills are only averaging 19.6 points on the season, but have shown the ability to score against tough defenses. They put up 17 against the Steelers and the Patriots and 20 against the Broncos in Week 11. None of those numbers would win you this bet, but the Texans’ defense is by far the worst unit out of all of those, even with Watt back. If you like the Texans to win this game, you should probably like the over as well since the Bills are going to score points.
Bottom Line
This is the hardest game of the four this weekend to get a read on. The Bills showed a lot of improvement as the season went on and the belief that they could only compete with bad teams was quickly thrown out the window when they hung tough with the Ravens and the Patriots and beat the Cowboys and the Steelers. But they are a young and inexperienced team, especially when it comes to the playoffs, and Josh Allen will be making the first playoff start of his career.
The Texans are getting a lot of key components back on both sides of the ball and should be able to run the ball effectively against the Bills’ defense, but the Texans have shown very little playoff success in their history. They’ve made the postseason five times before this season and played all their Wild Card games at home. They are 3-2 in those contests. They’ve never made it past the second round and are coming off perhaps their worst playoff performance in team history last season.
On the other hand, the Bills have shown no playoff success of late and in their only other appearance since 2000 scored just three points in a 10-3 loss to the Jaguars. Granted, that was with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, but are we sure that Josh Allen can perform better? This game should be close either way, with neither team having a weakness that can really be exploited by the other side’s strength. The Bills’ pass defense will be tested by Hopkins, but ultimately they should be able to slow them down. Buffalo can win this game, so I’ll take them as a small underdog.
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.