Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick
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The Dolphins have some momentum on their side after winning two straight games. Of course, Miami got off to a notoriously bad 0-7 start, but they have been playing much better lately. The betting world has taken notice, as the Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games. While Miami looks formidable at the moment, one has to wonder if the oddsmakers are starting to catch on, leading to less overall value for the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the Bills are firmly in playoff contention at 6-3 on the season. They'll look to bounce back after a tough 19-16 road loss at Cleveland last Sunday. Despite their impressive overall record, the Bills have covered just one of three games where they are favored by five or more points. That includes a 31-21 victory over Miami earlier this season, where the Bills failed to cover the 17-point spread. With the Dolphins showing signs of life in recent weeks, this spread has fallen to less than a touchdown (Bills -6.5) compared to that three-score spread nearly a month ago.
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Details
- Opening Lines: The spread has held at Bills -6.5 from the open. The over/under has increased from an open of 39.
- Current Line: Bills -6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- O/U: 40.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
- Start Time: 1:00pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: October 20, 2019 - Bills defeated Dolphins 31-20 in Buffalo
View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Bills at Dolphins >>
Overview
There are two main questions surrounding this game: 1) Is Miami actually improving, or is this some iteration of a midseason mirage? 2) How will the Bills perform when traveling 1,400 miles away from home? While I believe the Dolphins are starting to figure things out, I'm also entertaining the idea of Buffalo having their way here. The Bills are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC East. On the other hand, the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the AFC East, so something's gotta give.
Trends
- The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
- The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.
- The under is 5-1 in the Bills' last six games vs. AFC.
- The under is 6-2 in the Dolphins' last eight games.
Prop Bets
John Brown OVER 68 Receiving Yards
Miami is certainly vulnerable to the pass, ranking 19th in passing yards allowed and 28th in yards per pass attempt. John Brown already did work against the Dolphins with a 5-83-1 line in October. He should come close to that again, if not exceed that total en route to a 100-yard performance. Either way, I'm taking him OVER 68 receiving yards in this prop.
Bottom Line
While the Dolphins have been playing much better, I'm taking the Bills here. Buffalo will be motivated to show up for this road trip to Miami, considering a disappointing loss last week. In other words, they won't overlook the Dolphins, which is something Miami potentially benefitted from in the last two weeks.
Pick: Bills -6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.