Navigate

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick

by |

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook â€” or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? â€” to learn more.

The Bills have won four of their last five games thanks to a clutch performance on Sunday Night Football at Pittsburgh last week. They are one of the biggest surprises in the league (49ers too) while currently sitting on a 10-3 record. They are only one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East standings, and this franchise is extremely motivated to disrupt New England’s monopoly of division titles. The Bills fell to the Patriots 16-10 at home in September, but they felt they could’ve won that game if QB Josh Allen didn’t leave with an injury. They’ll get their chance on Saturday. 

The Patriots are hobbling down the stretch after losing three of their last six games. WR Julian Edelman is banged-up with knee and shoulder injuries, while QB Tom Brady has averaged less than 5.0 yards per attempt in back-to-back weeks. The latest taping scandal (against the Bengals) casts a dark cloud above the team as well. The Patriots will continue to hang their hat on defense while hoping to do enough in the short passing game offensively. This should be a tight divisional battle between two teams that pride themselves on the defensive side of the ball. 

Special Offer: Bet $1, Win $100, if Patrick Mahomes completes a pass Sunday >>

Details

  • Opening Line: The spread has held steady at Patriots -6.5. The over/under has dropped from 38.5 to 37.5.  
  • Current Line: Patriots -6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 37.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
  • Start Time: Saturday 12/21 @ 4:30 ET
  • Television: NFL Network
  • Last Meeting: September 29, 2019 – Patriots won 16-10 in Buffalo 

View Consensus Picks from 100+ Experts for the Bills at Patriots >>

Overview

For perspective, 76% of the BettingPros’ experts have jumped on the Bills against the spread. 57% of the public has followed suit. This is a fairly large line, especially considering the low over/under of just 37.5. The oddsmakers seem to be expecting a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair between two defensive teams, which seems to lend itself favorably to the Bills getting nearly a touchdown. Of course, we have the “young quarterback playing in Foxboro effect”, but Josh Allen has been pretty strong on the road this season.  

Trends

  • The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • The Bills are 8-2 to the under in their last 10 against the AFC.
  • The Patriots are 5-1 to the under in their last six against the AFC East. 

Prop Bets

James White OVER 49 Receiving Yards
As mentioned earlier, Julian Edelman has been playing through multiple injuries. James White has stepped up for the Patriots recently, averaging 58 receiving yards per contest over the last three, including 22 targets over that span. Buffalo has a strong defense, which could lead the Patriots to focus on their short passing game even more, as the Bills could potentially stuff the run here. I believe White will continue to be relevant, and he should surpass this receiving total. 

Bottom Line

I’m agreeing with the BettingPros’ experts here. The Bills getting 6.5 points seems like too many, even if its on the road. This should be a low-scoring game that stays within a touchdown throughout.

Pick: Bills +6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook review and promo codes >>

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 16

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+10)
New York Giants at Washington (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2)
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (+6)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.