Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Thanksgiving Day brings us a solid yet unspectacular three-game slate. Primarily due to the abomination that will be the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions game, but the primetime matchup between the Bills and Saints should be good. If nothing else, these games will allow us to sneak away from our presumably annoying families for our betting pleasure.
Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game. And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full write-up.
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Details:
Opening Line: O/U: 46 |NO +4
Current Line: O/U: 45.5| NO +6
Overview:
As a Buffalo fan, well, this feels all too familiar. High hopes and expectations have been met with recent heartbreak and despair – it’s good to be back.
The Bills enter, having lost two of their past three games—the lone win against the New York Jets and one of the losses coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I’ll allow you a moment to laugh because it’s pure comedy.
However, this team does possess high-end talent, and OC Brian Daboll should figure out how to get the passing game going soon.
The Saints have lost three-straight games, mainly due to injuries. Starting QB Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury, and stud RB Alvin Kamara has also been plagued by knee issues.
Apart from last weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints’ previous two losses were two points each. So, despite their hardships, head coach Sean Payton finds ways to keep his team close.
Below we’ll compare how these two teams’ matchups metrically.
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Numbers courtesy of PFF:
Average Offensive Snaps
- BUF: 70.1
- NO: 66.6
% Run Plays:
- BUF: 33.4%
- NO: 42.1%
% Pass Plays:
- BUF: 66.6%
- NO: 57.9%
EPA Per Run:
- BUF: -0.14
- NO: -0.16
EPA Per Pass:
- BUF: 0.12
- NO: 0.07
These teams take different approaches to their offensive attacks. Due to a poor running game, the Bills like to sling it frequently, while the Saints want to establish the run with the duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. One thing to watch for is the status of both running backs, as they were DNF Tuesday of this writing.
Trends:
- Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
- Saints are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Under is 5-1-1 in Bills last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
Bottom Line
Both teams will be looking to end their recent skids. New Orleans has a slightly better defense, but Buffalo has a far superior offense and a significant advantage at quarterback. Josh Allen owns an 80.6 PFF grade compared to Trevor Siemian’s 68.6 and is the superior athlete.
New Orleans owns the NO.2 rated run defense, according to PFF. The Bills already have trouble establishing the run, so they will look to get Allen out in space. Last week, Jalen Hurts ran all over this Saints team, and I expect Allen to do the same.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 30.5 rush yards (-114)
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