Bulls vs. Heat NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions (Wednesday)
The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat battle it out in the first game of Wednesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament to determine who will earn the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and keep their quest alive in the NBA playoffs.
Below are some of our top NBA Play-In Tournament picks and prop bets for Wednesday, April 16th’s contest between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions
Under 219 Points (-110)
The Chicago Bulls won all three games against the Miami Heat in the regular season. Still, all three games finished by a single-digit margin, so it wasn’t like the Bulls earned blowouts in these head-to-head matchups.
The most recent matchup saw the Bulls earn a 119-111 win on April 9th. Tyler Herro dropped 30 points and Bam Adebayo scored 18. However, the rest of the lineup struggled to get going. The Heat shot just 47.8% from the field and hit only 64.7% from the foul line.
Ultimately, the Bulls have limited teams to a 54.1% effective field goal percentage. They’ve also held teams to 26.2% of offensive rebounds. Beyond that, the Bulls don’t allow teams to get to the foul line consistently. Chicago is just bad at forcing turnovers, but everything else defensively is sound.
Meanwhile, the Heat are just as good defensively. Miami has held teams to 113.3 points per 100 possessions, limiting opponents to 26.4% of offensive rebounds and one of the lowest free-throw rates in the NBA.
This is significant, especially since the Bulls rank 28th in offensive rebounds and 29th in free-throw rate. Don’t expect the Bulls to take advantage of either area.
Therefore, the under is calling my name.
-Jason Radowitz
Josh Giddey More Than 46.5 Fantasy Points
Josh Giddey has cleared this number in the last two matchups against the Heat. Over the three games against them this season, he is averaging 58.1 fantasy points per game.
Tre Jones has already been ruled out, and Lonzo Ball is listed as doubtful. Ball did not play in either game Giddey exceeded this number.
-Paul Edgington
Josh Giddey Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
With Josh Giddey returning from a hand injury, it's interesting to see his line at a number he's only covered in 27% of games this season. Call me basic, but when the playoffs start, I usually look to aim towards betting unders. The stakes are much higher, the play is a bit more methodical and, most importantly, the defense will be better across the board. That's what makes it so entertaining to watch.
It's also important that Miami was a top-10 defense in the second half with the fourth-slowest pace of play in the league. Giddey has averaged 14 points and eight boards a game. While he's been playing consistently better for the new look Bulls, this number is still too high. Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing point guards and a below-average number of boards. It's a juiced line, but it's a clear bet to kick off some playoff betting.
-Ryan Coleman
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110)
The player I'm most confident in hitting his overs tonight is Tyler Herro. The Miami point guard has averaged a 31% usage rate over the last two weeks with 26 points, five boards, and nearly five assists a night.
He's going up against the fastest-pace post-All-Star break squad against the 19th-ranked league defense on the season. No team has allowed more combined points + rebounds + assists to opposing point guards this year, either with the second-most points and most assists allowed. Feel free to bet some alts because Herro might go nuclear tonight.
-Ryan Coleman
Matas Buzelis More Than 11.5 Points
Matas Buzelis has averaged 18 points per game against the Heat and scored at least 13 in all three games. Heading into the NBA Play-In Tournament game, he has exceeded this number in 10 of his last 12 games. The Heat are allowing an average of 20.5 points per game to small forwards.
-Paul Edgington
First Basket Scorer: Tyler Herro (+600)
Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic will compete for the tip against Bam Adebayo of the Heat. Vucevic has only won the tip in 35% of games this season. As a result, the Bulls have scored first just 48% of the time this year.
Meanwhile, Adebayo has won the tip in 68% of games this season. He’s helped the Heat score first 57% of the time this year. In addition, Adebayo has already won two opening tips against Vucevic this season. It’s way more likely that Adebayo and the Heat win the tip and attempt the first shot in this game.
That said, the Bulls have allowed the first basket to point guards 26% of the time this season. At point guard for the Heat currently is Tyler Herro. Herro only has three first baskets in 40 games played, so he’s not the best candidate. But his value to score first is much higher against the Bulls. Let’s take a chance on Herro to score first in tonight’s game.
-Jason Radowitz
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat Same-Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Bulls -1 (-105)
- Leg 2: Bam Adebayo 20+ Points (-115)
- Leg 3: Coby White 23+ Points (-105)
This game looks like a pick’em, but Chicago has the advantage by winning all three games in the regular season. Both teams lost their best players but still snuck into the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Chicago played better, even after they traded Zach LaVine. From March 1st, they went 15-7, the seventh-best winning percentage. They were doing well on both sides of the ball as they were 12th in defense rating and 14th in offensive rating.
Josh Giddey and Coby White have been a great duo in the backcourt, and they've helped the Bulls play a more sped-up offense.
The Heat have experience from playing in this tournament and taking that route to the NBA Finals. Miami is one of the slowest-paced offenses in the league, at 97.2 possessions per game (27th), but instead of trying to control the pace of the play, they allow their opponents to set the tone.
Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have become the two primary offensive playmakers. The Bulls’ perimeter defense has been struggling, and Herro has performed well, including 30 points in the last game.
We've seen these turn into higher-scoring games as Chicago controls the pace. If they're allowed to do that again, they should move on.
Parlay Odds: +613
-John Supowitz