Canadiens vs. Lightning: Stanley Cup Game 5 Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 7th (2021)
The Canadiens staved off elimination on Monday night to force a Game Five back in Tampa Bay and avoided becoming the first team since the 1997-98 Capitals to get swept in the Stanley Cup Final. Luckily for NHL fans and bettors, weâll be treated to at least one more night of hockey before a three-plus month offseason.
Fridayâs best bet didnât go as planned. The Canadiens were gashed by the Lightning in a 6-3 defeat, handing us our first loss in the last four wagers. Tonight could be the last NHL betting opportunity of the season, and if it is, letâs make sure we go out on a high note and make one last improvement to the seasonâs 13-9-1 record.
Hereâs my best bet for Game Five of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens: Game Five (TBL Leads 3-1)
Montreal came out of the gate in Game Four looking like a team who wanted to get the game over with and head to the golf course. But a switch flipped about halfway through the first period, and from then on, the Canadiens were energetic, physical, and the better of the two teams on the ice. Now the series heads back to Tampa Bay, where the Canadiens had all kinds of trouble in the first two games, and while I do think the Lightning are going to wrap this thing up and avoid a flight back north of the border, I donât think thereâs any value at all left on the Bolts at -225. Weâve got to find better value, and I believe I have.
Andrei Vasilevskiyâs marvelous run of dominance in series-clinching victories has been widely touted throughout these playoffs. As I highlighted in my series preview, the Tampa Bay netminder is 7-0 with a .967 save percentage and 0.89 goals-against average in the last seven series-deciding wins, including shutouts in each of the last four. Vasilevskiy had a chance to slam the door shut on the Canadiens in Game Four but let in three, including the overtime winner, and while this may seem like his run of excellence has concluded, it actually follows a very familiar pattern.
Of the last five victories to win a series, four have come after a loss, and three of those losses were in overtime. It sounds eerily similar to the situation weâre in Game Five. Furthermore, four of the seven wins came on home ice, exactly where the Lightning will be tonight. Donât let Game Four deter you; Vasilevskiy has done this dance before. Heâll be up to the task in Game Five, as will the Lightning.
Howâs this for a stat?
To add to the deck thatâs already stacked against the Canadiens, they havenât generated much scoring in Tampa Bay this series. They netted just a goal in each of the two games at Amalie Arena and only averaged two goals per game for the entire series, regardless of venue. Theyâre going to have trouble scoring again tonight, and because of that, weâre going to attack their team total.
With the game total at over/under 5 and the Lightning as heavy favorites, we can imply that the books donât expect the Canadiens to exceed two goals as a team. Yet somehow, their team total of 2 is -105 at most books and no lower than -112 at others. The worst-case scenario here is a push, but given Vasilevskiyâs dominant run and the Canadiensâ inability to score in Tampa Bay, I think thereâs a ton of value on this total at nearly even money. And because the Lightning goaltender has been so strong in elimination games, Iâm going to place an extra quarter-unit on him to shut the Canadiens out at +600.
The Picks: Canadiens Team Total Under 2 (1u, -105); Andrei Vasilevskiy to Record a Shutout (0.25u; +600)
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.