Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
We get a treat on Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as not just one but two four-belt champions will be in the boxing ring, and they’ll be fighting each other for the first time in boxing history.
The preliminary fights begin at 5:30 p.m. ET, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. The main event will begin at or around 11:15 p.m. ET, and you can tune in via Showtime’s Pay-per-view.
Below, I will discuss my two best prop bets for this event.
Super Middleweight Title Bout Best Prop Bets
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Picks
Canelo (59-2-2, 39 KOs) flirted with a move up to light heavyweight, attempting to become a two-division champ. Dmitrii Bivol had other ideas, sending the Mexican champ back to the middleweight division in a hurry.
Canelo became the undisputed champ by pushing past Caleb Plant across town at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Nov. 2021, posting an 11th-round TKO after planting Plant twice in that round. That’s when Canelo tried to get a little greedy and move up, only to be denied via unanimous decision against Bivol.
So Canelo returned to the division and subsequently won via unanimous decision against Gennadiy Golovkin at this very same venue, T-Mobile Arena. He pushed past GGG 116-112 and 115-113 x2, just over four calendar months after the disappointing of the Bivol loss. Something wasn’t right in the Bivol or Golovkin fights, and Canelo ended up requiring corrective surgery for a wrist injury.
He returned to the ring against John Ryder at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, in his native Mexico. Canelo was a little tentative early in the second title defense of his undisputed championship. He pulled away as the night went along, and he had his arm raised after the judges scored the fight 120-107, 118-109 x2. But a win over Ryder didn’t exactly wow, at least in terms of quality of opponent.
Originally, Canelo was expected to face Jermall Charlo. However, the latter pulled out of the first of a three-fight deal with Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) due to personal issues. In steps Charlo’s twin brother, Jermell, who just happens to be the four-belt champ at the super welterweight division.
With a 73-inch reach, Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs) steps to Canelo with a 2 1/2-inch reach advantage. He has registered knockouts in 54.29 percent of his fights, but that is unlikely to occur against a champ with the pedigree of Canelo. The Mexican champ has only lost to Bivol and Floyd Mayweather Jr. back in Sept. 2013 in a majority decision.
The best bet is taking Canelo via points/decision
The Pick: Canelo Alvarez by points/decision (-125 via FanDuel)
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Parlay
Looking at the various props in this title bout, it’s hard to ignore the “Knocked Down” category. Charlo to be knocked down can help you nearly double up your initial wager by two times at +184. That’s too tempting to pass up. Remember, Canelo knocked down Plant not once but twice in the 11th round of their title fight.
While I don’t like playing singular wagers of over -180, it’s hard not to like Yes: Fight to go the distance (-230) as part of a multi-part parlay, perhaps coupled with the Charlo knockdown prop, as well as Canelo Method of Victory.
The Picks: Jermell Charlo To Be Knocked Down (+184 via FanDuel), Yes: Fight to go the Distance (-230 via FanDuel)
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.