Cardinals vs. Bears NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)
Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Cardinals vs. Bears.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Sides:
- Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
- The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
- The Bears have lost eight of their last nine road games.
- The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
- The home team has covered the spread in 10 of the Bears' last 12 games.
- The Bears are 9-5-1 ATS and 9-6 straight up in their last 15 games.
- Their opponents have scored first in each of the Bears’ last seven games.
- The Bears are 5-10-1 ATS as road underdogs (33%). 5-11-1 ATS on the road (31%).
- Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-3 on the road.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in three of their last four games.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
- The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
- The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before last week.
- Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun.
Totals:
- Seven of the Bears' last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Bears' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Bears' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 8-4-1 toward the under in their last 13 games.
- Eleven of the Bears' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- This season, they are 2-2 toward the over in their three road/London games.
- The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-7-1).
- Nine of the Cardinals’ last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-2 O/U) this season, averaging 43 points per game.
- Nine of the Cardinals’ last 11 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
What do we know about the Bears? Well, it's a team that you don't want to play or bet on when they go on the road. Or when they are underdogs.
All the trends are well below 50%, with the most glaring being the Bears as road underdogs. 5-10-1 ATS (33%). On the money line, as road underdogs? 2-14 (13%).
Looking for an upset special? Da Bears likely are not in Week 9.
Again, we bet them as favorites at home.
Their defense is solid, but they can be exposed against the run. They are second in EPA/pass play allowed but 14th in EPA/rush allowed. The Cardinals’ strength is their ground game. Arizona is 4-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.
James Conner has forced 54 missed tackles this season, the most in the NFL.
Conner has run to the strong side of the formation at the 6th-highest rate in the league (55.0%, min. 75 carries) and has the 2nd-most missed tackles forced on such rushes in 2024 (22). The Bears have recorded a 10.9% missed tackle rate this season (3rd-lowest), resulting in just 279 yards allowed after missed tackles (3rd-fewest) per Next Gen Stats.
Although the Cardinals have their own issues against the run - seventh-worst EPA/rush attempt.
According to Next Gen Stats, D'Andre Swift has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 30.6% of his rushes since Week 4, the 5th-lowest rate among running backs (min. 30 carries). The Cardinals have contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of carries this season, the 5th-lowest in the NFL.
Swift has rushed for at least 68.5 yards in four straight games.
Still, I feel pretty good about Arizona winning this matchup at home in the dome.
But I feel this is a closer contest, as the small spread suggests. Kyler Murray's scrambling ability can be a backbreaker for opposing defenses and I think Arizona can run the ball on the Bears to success. They are best at running outside the tackles and against light boxes.
The Bears rank 25th in yards per carry to RBs on outside tackles rushes (5.6) and 26th in rushing yards allowed to light boxes (74.6).
I'd expect a heavy dosage of running with some deep shots to rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. mixed in, as the Bears’ pass defense has been weakest against deep passes.
It's the reverse for Caleb Williams, who should bounce back after struggling last week. Arizona is awful against short passing, which is where the Bears rookie quarterback has been at his best this season. It's when Williams holds onto the ball for too long that problems start to arise.
The Cardinals' defense has generated pressure on just 26.6% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
After careful consideration, I think the over might be interesting take on this game but it's razor close to my projection at 44 points that I don't think I will play it. Two teams led by rushing attacks and short passing games doesn't scream shootout even in Arizona. The Bears' No. 1 red-zone defense also concerns me about the over this game.
Props:
According to Next Gen Stats, Trey McBride leads the NFL in targets (31), receptions (24), and receiving yards (295) from tight alignment this season.
McBride has aligned tight on 62.5% of his snaps in 2024 (31.7% slot, 4.7% wide). McBride has also been effective against zone coverage, recording the 2nd-most targets (45), receptions (37), and receiving yards (377) among tight ends this season. The Bears have used zone coverage on 79.0% of dropbacks in 2024, the 4th-highest rate in the league.
Rome Odunze has at least 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games played. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against No. 3 WRs, allowing nearly 51 yards per game to opposing third options.
Odunze was the top target for the Bears in Week 8, catching three of his six targets for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per reception. Odunze took on a significant role with a 29% target share and 126 air yards (45%). The overall production wasn't great, but the usage for the rookie post-bye week is excellent. Buy the rookie as the ascending WR talent on the Bears.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jaylon Johnson has forced the lowest passer rating (38.0) and lowest completion percentage over expected (-17.4%) when targeted this season (min. 25 targets).
Johnson has aligned as the Bears field corner on 83.0% of his snaps in 2024 (Tyrique Stephenson 81% boundary).
The Bears are tied with the Broncos with the fewest targets allowed to opposing No. 1 WRs this season.
My Picks: