Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds & Game Pick (2021)
A pair of NFC South Division rivals are set to collide for the first time this season as part of Sunday’s early-afternoon NFL slate. The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are certainly no strangers to facing one another. However, the two teams enter this Week 8 matchup trending in opposite directions. Oddsmakers have sided with the hotter team in recent weeks. As a result, the host Falcons are a short betting favorite ahead of this divisional showdown.
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Details
Opening Lines: Falcons -2.5; O/U 48
Current Lines: Falcons -3; O/U 46
Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: FOX
Last Meeting: October 29, 2020 — The Falcons defeated the Panthers 25-17 in Charlotte.
Overview
After starting the season off 3-0, the Panthers enter Sunday’s NFL betting matchup, losing four straight. Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold were the talk of the league after the hot start. Since then, Carolina has come crashing back down to earth offensively. Darnold was so bad in an embarrassing 22-point loss to the New York Giants last week that he was benched in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t a pretty return to MetLife Stadium for the former New York Jets signal-caller. The Panthers have also realized just how important Christian McCaffrey is to this offense in recent weeks. While Mike Davis was able to fill in admirably for him last season, rookie Chuba Hubbard has not fared nearly as well.
Much like Carolina’s offense, the defense has also regressed mightily over the last few weeks. The Panthers held down the top in Football Outsiders’ adjusted defensive efficiency rankings through the first three weeks. Since then, they have slipped down to 11th. The Panthers have particularly struggled at stopping the run. Even without Saquon Barkley, the Giants easily surpassed 100 yards on the ground last week. The unit will look to turn the tide on Sunday against one of the more unpredictable offenses in the league.
Just when it looked like the Falcons were headed for a lost season and top-five pick in next spring’s NFL Draft, Matt Ryan decided to start throwing the ball to rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. But, of course, he had no choice three weeks ago across the pond in an NFL betting game that saw Atlanta without star receiver Calvin Ridley. The trend continued on the road last Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. Pitts exploded for 163 yards receiving on seven receptions. Ryan finished with over 330 yards and two scores through the air. The win marked the third in four games for the Falcons and evened their record at .500 on the season.
Many NFL betting analysts were excited about the prospects of the aforementioned Mike Davis operating as the lead back in Atlanta this season. However, as last week showed, that has hardly been the case. While Davis saw just four carries, Cordarrelle Patterson had 14 and scored a touchdown in the win. From out of nowhere, the veteran Patterson has been posting big numbers every week. Additionally, while the Falcons defense remains one of the worst in the league, they have pass-rushers capable of flustering Darnold in Sunday’s matchup.
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Trends
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- Eight of the Panthers’ last ten games have gone under the total.
- Falcons are just 1-4 SU in their last five home games.
- The total has gone over in four of the Falcons’ last five games.
- Falcons are 6-1 both SU and ATS in their last seven head-to-head matchups against the Panthers.
Bottom Line
The biggest line move to note ahead of this game concerns the total. After opening at 48, the over/under line has fallen to as low as 46 throughout the NFL betting market. This is a play against the currently dysfunctional Panthers offense. Even though the Falcons do not grade out as an efficient defense, it still feels like they could have their way with the struggling Sam Darnold on Sunday.
Carolina’s defense may struggle to slow down the suddenly hot Falcons offensive attack on the other side of the ball. Atlanta’s early-season struggles indeed weren’t because of a lack of talent. Getting the uber-talented Kyle Pitts more involved should continue to pay dividends. Matt Ryan caught a ton of heat early in the season but has posted a string of impressive stat lines in the weeks since. If he can avoid turning it over, the Falcons will be in a great position come the fourth quarter on Sunday. One can almost guarantee some sort of Sam Darnold mistake aiding Atlanta’s efforts.
Pick: Falcons -3
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.