Navigate

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Sports Betting Guide

by |

The Carolina Panthers will be without Cam Newton for at least one more contest. They have looked rock-solid in his absence and have managed to pull out three straight victories with their backup quarterback. Tampa Bay has had a rocky start to the season as Jameis Winston continues to be error-prone.

Tampa Bay won the meeting between these two teams in Week 2, but that was when the Panthers were still forcing a hobbled Cam Newton to play under center. However, the storyline was that they found a way to bottle up the Panthers’ engine in Christian McCaffrey. If they can do so once again they could walk to an easy victory as Kyle Allen will not be beating teams by himself.

The Buccaneers have scored 29.4 points per game (fifth), but still have a -0.2 scoring margin. Carolina has scored 25.8 points per game, but have a 4.4 scoring margin. This contest projects to be a tightly contested one if both teams make the trip early enough to play near the top of their games in London. Let’s dig in. 

Deposit $50 at PointsBet and get a free $100 bonus! >>

Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened as a pick ‘em (even odds for both teams with no point spread). The over/under total opened at 46.5 points. The early action has moved the point to -2.5 on Carolina. The over/under total has also seen some movement, moving from 46.5 to 47.5.
  • Current Line: Carolina -2.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham, North London, England
  • Start Time: 9:30 AM EST, Sunday, October 13th
  • Last Meeting: Tampa Bay defeated Carolina 20-14 – September 12th, 2019

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Panthers at Buccaneers >>

Overview

The Carolina Panthers started the season with a disappointing 0-2 record behind what was clearly a limited Cam Newton. Newton was injured late in the preseason and ended up playing through the injury to compromising results. Choosing not to run is one thing, not being able to run and being restricted in movement is another. Even the superhuman Patrick Mahomes was a different quarterback after suffering an ankle injury in Week 5.

The Panthers decided to let Cam Newton heal and installed Kyle Allen over talented rookie Will Grier. The decision prompted some initial second guessing from media types, but Ron Rivera made his selection based on Allen’s superior grasp of the offense and his starting experience from last season. Now 3-2 behind the heroics of Christian McCaffrey, it appears that Ron Rivera made the right call. Looking beyond Week 6, Carolina has a tough schedule ahead of them. They will likely need a fully healthy Cam Newton to avoid slumping to a 6-10 or 7-9 record.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at a hard fought 2-3 record thus far on the 2019 season. Generally speaking, as goes Jameis Winston, so do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It should come as no surprise that the quarterback plays a high correlative factor in wins and losses, but it seems to be even more pronounced with the Bucs.

If the good Winston shows up, the Buccaneers have the offensive and defensive talent to beat just about any team in the NFL (see Week 4 on the road against the Los Angeles Rams). If the not so good Winston shows up, the Buccaneers can drop matchups in which they were expected to be able to cruise to easy victories (see Week 3 at home against the New York Giants). Tampa Bay has yet to address their run game woes, but they have coaxed better production out of the position than what we saw from them last year. The Buccaneers have a tough schedule ahead of them and will need the best version of Jameis Winston to show up if they are to have a chance of making the postseason. 

Trends

  • Carolina is 2-0 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Carolina is 3-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Tampa Bay is 2-3 ATS on the season. 
  • Under is 6-1 in the last seven contests between these two teams.
  • The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams.
  • Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Tampa Bay is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight up loss. 
  • Tampa Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four contests following a loss ATS.
  • Under is 4-1 in Carolina’s last five contests against the NFC South. 
  • Under is 5-1 in Carolina’s last six contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Over is 5-1 in Carolina’s last six contests following a straight up win.
  • Over is 5-1 in Carolina’s last six Week 6 contests.
  • Under is 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s last seven contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five Week 6 contests. 

Prop Bets

Chris Godwin over 100 receiving yards (-159)
There is also over 75 receiving yards available at -400. -400 lines, even for props, are usually lines to shy away from. However, with Vegas pushing baseball moneylines north of -330 on a semi regular basis, lines of -400 no longer seem as daunting as they once did. However, Chris Godwin has looked like one of the top receivers in the league through five contests and has gone over 100 yards in three of his five contests.

Though we sacrifice some of the win probability, there is much more value in the over 100 yards line. Godwin went off against Carolina for 121 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2. He saw eight receptions from his nine targets and should once again see the volume to allow him to safely clear this total. Godwin is set to square off with Panthers slot corner Javien Elliot. The former Buccaneer has allowed an exploitable 9.8 yards per target and a 75-percent catch rate on the season. Lock this prop in before the public wises up and moves the juice to the -180 range. 

Bottom Line

This contest opened as a pick ‘em for a reason. Carolina has looked like the better team this season, but there is a version of the Buccaneers that can dispatch the Panthers with ease. While a teaser card prop at PointsBet is preferred for this matchup, Tampa Bay’s moneyline has the most potential value. Some line shopping via our live odds page shows us that FanDuel currently has the best Buccaneers moneyline odds.

Tampa Bay will have a tough day stopping the electric Christian McCaffrey, but have the run defense to do as good a job as any this season. They held him to just 53 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches in Week 2 and will be looking to limit his impact on the contest once again. The line for this contest has moved enough to make Tampa Bay the clear value based on the opening odds. Side with value and fade the public with the Buccaneers. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +120

Deposit $50 at PointsBet and get a free $100 bonus! >>

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 6

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Washington Redskins vs. Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (+7)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos (-2)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.