Chargers vs. Buccaneers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)
Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chargers vs. Buccaneers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sides:
- The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
- The Chargers are 9-4 ATS this season.
- The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
- The favorites have covered the spread in 11 of the Chargers' last 13 games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
- The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last nine games.
- The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in their last six home games.
- The Chargers have scored first in five of their last seven road games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
- The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
- The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last five games following a win.
- The Buccaneers are 12-4 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 road games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
- Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
- Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 11 games.
- The underdogs have won seven of the last 20 Buccaneers' games.
- Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
- The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers have lost their last six road games against AFC opponents.
Totals:
- Eleven of the Chargers’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-one of the Chargers’ last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Chargers’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 9-4 toward the under this season.
- The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (1.0). They have the No. 1-ranked red zone defense. The Buccaneers rank eighth in the red zone.
- Each of the Chargers’ last five games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Buccaneers' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Tampa Bay is 8-5 O/U this season (4-3 at home, averaging nearly 50 points per game).
- On defense, they have allowed the 10th-most points per game (the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense).
- The Buccaneers are scoring the 5th-most points per game in the NFL (27.9) and have the NFL's 4th-best red zone touchdown percentage (68.6%) - Next Gen Stats.
- The Chargers are allowing just 15.9 points per game and an opponent red zone touchdown percentage of 41.9% (both lead the NFL) - Next Gen Stats.
- Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-10 record toward the over).
Overall:
If it weren't for Baker Mayfield's extremely strong record ATS as both an underdog and road warrior, I could make a very strong case in favor of taking the Chargers as 3-point favorites at home.
The Bolts have been a good team all year long from both a W-L perspective and ATS. They have only lost to the top-tier teams this season, aside from losing a nail-biter on a Monday Night Football game against the Arizona Cardinals.
They have been solid bets as favorites, and they have been quick starters on offense by jumping out to leads. But Tampa Bay has also been great at jumping out to leads, leading the NFL in first-quarter points.
Ladd McConkey should be back for the Chargers, providing a major boost to their offense. And more touches for rookie Kimani Vidal should get this run game going more against a Buccaneers defense that loves to stack the box - for better or worse.
Gus Edwards led the backfield with 10 carries for 36 yards and a goal-line touchdown (3.6 YPC).
Kimani Vidal contributed eight carries for 34 yards (4.3 YPC).
Edwards led the first half with four carries for six yards compared to Vidal's lone rush attempt for seven yards. But Vidal was a bigger factor in the second half and added the most juice from the backfield, going seven for 27 to Edwards' six for 30.
He out-snapped Gus Edwards 53% versus 43% while running two more routes.
In the red zone, Edwards had four rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Vidal had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.
Hasaan Haskins played one offensive snap.
Vidal looks like he is starting to emerge in this backfield, but it won't likely be more than a 1A/1B situation.
As for the total, LAC has gone under in back-to-back games. But in their three-game home stint, they ripped off three straight overs. Two of those games featured game totals of 48 and 51 points.
Tampa Bay loves to play toward the over, and I think we will see a fourth straight game shootout at home in Los Angeles.
The Buccaneers’ defense can be extremely boom-or-bust, and they have allowed seven of their last 10 games to go over the total. Before the last two of the last four weeks, the Bucs were on a six-game streak of overs, three of which were on the road.
If we just zoom out on the quarterback matchup between Baker Mayfield and Justin Hebert, it's not hard to see an easy over. We've seen both of these teams dial up heavy pass-game scripts this season.
Props:
The Chargers don’t stack the box or defend runs under center.
The Chargers have allowed the 4th-most rushing yards over expected (+68), 6th-most yards per carry (9.1), and tied for the 2nd-most first downs (16) against scrambles this season (Next Gen Stats).
The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
No. 2 tight end Stone Smartt caught all 3 of his targets (10% share) for 54 yards, including a 24-yard grab in Week 14. Will Dissly was reliable, converting 2 of 2 targets for 19 yards. But he got hurt in the first half and did not return to the game in the second half (shoulder injury). Dissly is expected to miss time.
Herbert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is. Bet Smartter, not harder this week.
Cade Otton led the Buccaneers in receiving yards last week, catching three of four targets for 70 yards (14% Target share) with a red-zone target.
Otton's targets have dipped to 15% since Evans' return, but he was able to efficiently get there in a plus-matchup. Next week will be tougher against the Chargers. Therefore, I am taking the under on his 4.5 catches prop. He is under this number in 70% of his games played with Mike Evans this season. The Chargers have also been a top-10 defense against TEs this season.
Evans needs to average 100 yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in three straight.
The Chargers rank 29th in EPA/attempt allowed on passes thrown 20-plus air yards this season.
My Picks: