Chargers vs. Packers: NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Chargers vs. Packers.
NFL Betting Primer: Chargers vs. Packers
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
The Packers are 0-4 ATS in the last four games as underdogs. 2-5 overall as straight dogs. And they have faced the 4th-easiest strength of schedule in the NFC.
They are 3-6 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) and Rams (led by Brett Rypien). They willed their way to a 13-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter in their last victory over L.A.
The Packers’ offense finally scored in the first half last week, but I'll chalk that up to variance for a team that has been the worst offensive-scoring team in the first halves of games. Only the Giants have led fewer games in the first two quarters than Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been the third-highest-scoring offense in the first half, behind only Dallas and Kansas City. Second-best on the road. GB is dead last at home in the first half point scored.
This might be the lock of all locks. Chargers -1.5 first-half spread. Get all the good parts of the LA Chargers before they piss it all away in the second half.
As for the totals, here are the trends.
6 of 7 last games have gone under for LAC. 4 of the last five games have gone under for both the Chargers and Packers. The Packers are 3-1 toward the under at home.
But both teams are coming off "overs" hitting. Lightning won't strike twice in two weeks even if the Chargers’ defense continues to underwhelm (4th in RZ trips faced, 32nd in yards per attempt faced). The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears. The Packers are a bad team.
Take the under.
Still, for props, we can pile into the yardage totals for Jordan Love. Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. Jordan Love has gone over 226.5 passing yards in three straight games and all four of his home games this season.
Pair the Love passing yards over with Luke Musgrave. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (68.3).
My Picks:
- Chargers 1st Half -1.5
- Under 44
My Props:
- Luke Musgrave over 28.5 receiving yards
- Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards
- Romeo Doubs over 2.5 receptions
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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