Chargers vs. Patriots: NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Chargers vs. Patriots.
NFL Betting Primer: Chargers vs. Patriots
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
Full disclosure, I hate this game. You have the horrible tanking Patriots at home against the Chargers - who are the absolute kings of disappointment in the betting space.
Both teams are so bad. The Chargers defense ranks 30th in yards per attempt and 27th in red-zone trips faced per game.
The Patriots offense ranks 17th in red-zone conversion rate, 29th in yards per attempt and 27th in third-down conversion rate.
Ultimately, I "settle" on the Chargers -6 and to win based on the massive difference in the two starting QBs.
Justin Herbert is too good to not win by a touchdown against a horrible Patriots team, even on the road. Brandon Staley is coaching for his job and must win this game.
Also don't hate the idea of betting on the Chargers 1st half spread at 3 points. They have been a strong first-half offense which the Patriots have been not. They have led in the first quarter in 54.5% of their games versus the Patriots (18.2%).
The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears. The Patriots are on that same wavelength if not a tier lower.
Case I point, the New England Patriots have the worst overall record and ATS in the AFC (18.2%).
The Patriots offense is in complete disarray, with unknowns who the starting quarterback will even be. Most likely Bailey Zappe after Mac Jones was benched in Week 12.
I'd imagine they continue to run the football, with Rhamondre Stevenson seeing 20-plus carries in back-to-back games. Even so, a run-heavy approach doesn't translate to wins or actual points. The Chargers run defense has also been solid versus the run this season, ranking toward the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game.
LA has been much worse defending RBs in the passing game, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA against RBs. So back Stevenson to have a productive game as both a rusher/receiver, regardless of how the game shakes out. He will get fed and post strong yardage totals.
As for the points total, I love the under more than any side.
Eight of the Chargers' last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Patriots games have gone UNDER in three of their last 5 games.
These teams have combined for a 16-6 record toward the under averaging 42 points scored. The Patriots are 3-2 toward the under at home this season.
With the game total likely going under - unless we get short fields created by turnovers - you'll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Take the under on Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and his rushing yardage props.
Given his sluggish play the last few games, I'd opt for less than 51.5 rushing yards for Ekeler in Week 13 versus the Patriots. Their defense is stout against RBs allowing the league's second-lowest yards per carry (3.5). Ekeler has also surpassed 51.5 rushing yards only twice since returning from injury in Week 6 (29% hit rate).
My Picks:
- Under 40.5
- Chargers -6
My Props:
- Austin Ekeler under 51.5 rushing yards
- Joshua Kelley under 18.5 rushing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson over 57.5 rushing yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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