Chargers vs Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) vs. Las Vegas (LV): LAC -3
Sides
- The Raiders are 8-1-1 ATS over their last 10 games.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
- The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine games.
- The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- LAC was 4-5 as a favorite in 2023.
Totals
- Each of the Chargers’ last seven games as favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Chargers' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- These two teams averaged 42 points scored in 2023.
- SoFi Stadium was 6-11 toward the over in 2023 between the Rams/Chargers.
- Six of the Raiders' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall
I can't help but think this Chargers -3 line is being fueled solely by Jim Harbaugh taking over as the Chargers head coach. Because we know there's no home-field advantage for the Chargers. And nothing about how last year ended suggested that the Las Vegas Raiders are the vastly inferior team against the spread.
Per Givemesport.com, "Harbaugh has been a head coach for 20 seasons in the NCAA and NFL, going 16-4 in season openers overall. In his previous stint in the NFL with the 49ers, he was 4-0 in season openers, winning by an average margin of 10.3 points. With San Diego, Stanford, and Michigan, he was 12-4 in season openers, with his last loss coming in 2018."
Meanwhile, we've seen the shine go away on a number of interim head coaches the year AFTER they become the head honcho for the same franchise. Performing above low expectations versus rising ones are two different conversations.
All in all, I don't feel comfortable backing this Raiders offense with Gardner Minshew as quarterback, even as a three-point underdog. I'm sure Harbaugh is using last year's embarrassing 63-21 loss the last time these teams played as motivation for the Chargers players that were part of that game.
If I had to pick a side, it's the Chargers (final last words). But this is most likely a stay-away game for me from a side perspective. Justin Herbert played zero snaps during the preseason, so I am concerned they might come out of the gates slow.
Still, I'm more confident projecting both teams to rely on their respective ground games; therefore, I’m slamming the under on this total even at 40.5 points.
Props
- Only one QB the Raiders faced has thrown for 300-plus yards in 2023. Fully expect LA to pound the rock with J.K. Dobbins leading the charge. Before his injury, Dobbins, at the end of the 2022 season, hit the "over" on his rushing line for five straight weeks.
- Josh Palmer went over 77 receiving yards in both his games against the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023. As the main Chargers WR who has built-in chemistry with Justin Herbert, I expect Palmer to see a lot of looks in Week 1. D.J. Chark Jr. doesn’t look like he will play. Be sure to bet those Quentin Johnston unders.
My Picks