Chargers vs. Saints NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 8)

Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chargers vs. Saints.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sides:

• The Chargers are 3-3 ATS this season.
• The Chargers have scored first in each of their last five games.
• The favorites have covered the spread in five of the Chargers’ last six games.
• The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
• The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
• In eight of the Saints' last 10 games against AFC opponents, their opponents have scored first.
• The Saints have lost each of their last five games.
• The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
• As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.

Totals:

• Seven of the Chargers' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seventeen of the Chargers' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Chargers are 5-1 toward the under this season.
• Nine of the Chargers' last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Chargers' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Chargers have faced the second-fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
• Seven of the Saints' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line
• The Saints have the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL (38% conversion rate).

Overall:

When these lines first dropped, I was immediately drawn to the under. I wish that I had been more patient.  After opening closer to 39.5, it's been bet up to 40.5 based on how bad the Saints’ defense has played. But keep in mind that New Orleans is playing with four more additional days of rest after playing on Thursday of Week 7. LA is coming off a late Monday night game on the road.

Ultimately, I expect the Chargers to take care of business, given the massive coaching mismatch and their advantages running the ball against an atrocious Saints run defense.

However, a seven-point spread has me hesitant to bet on the Chargers at "home." I’d rather just bet the game total under. I don't have much confidence in the Saints’ offense moving the ball against the Bolts’ defense that ranks 5th in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers have fared well against the run, generating a 64.7% defensive success rate while facing a blocking disadvantage (7th-highest in the NFL). The Saints have totaled 518 yards on 134 carries with a blocking advantage this season, recording the third-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and rushing yards over expected (-43).

Other than some QB scrambles from Spencer Rattler, New Orleans will have issues offensively. We might see them pound the rock against LA's lighter boxes. Kendre Miller (8.3), Taysom Hill (7.8), and Alvin Kamara (5.7) have strong yards per carry numbers against fewer defenders in the box.

I also don't believe the Chargers have the requisite firepower to put this game over the total by themselves. Their most aggressive aerial attack last week translated into 15 points on the board despite nearly 350 passing yards from quarterback Justin Herbert.

Props:

Chris Olave has recorded a 25.9% target rate when facing off coverage (5+ yards) this season, 10.5% higher than his target rate when seeing less than 5 yards of cushion.

Olave has recorded 18 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets against off-coverage this season, generating +0.9 EPA per target (4th-most among wide receivers with at least 10 targets). The Chargers corners have played off coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (76.5%). As a result, the Chargers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt on passes underneath 10 air yards this season (4.9).

Even though I anticipate a strong rushing effort from the Chargers, I don’t think they will completely abandon the passing game. Since returning from the bye week, LA has posted a +7% pass rate over expectation, compared to the -11% rate in Weeks 1-5. Herbert’s passing yards prop is a low bar to pass (pun intended) set at a measly 198.5 passing yards. The BettingPros projections have him close to 218.5 passing yards and 235.7 passing yards on NFL Pro. The only QBs who haven’t passed for 200 yards against the Saints this season are Bryce Young and Bo Nix.

My Picks:

• Under 40.5
• Justin Herbert OVER 198.5 passing yards