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Chargers vs. Steelers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 3)

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Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chargers vs. Steelers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • The Steelers have won five of their last six games.
  • The Chargers are 2-0 ATS this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 12-8 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 2-0 this season in two road games.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Chargers’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Chargers' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 2-0 toward the under this season. As are the Steelers.

Overall:

This game could get ugly in a hurry. In the aftermath of Week 2's win over the Panthers, Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, but these compounding lower body injuries for Herbert are concerning me, especially with them playing on the road against this fierce Steelers defensive line with T.J. Watt leading the charge (pun intended).

This is undoubtedly one of the better coaching matchups of Week 3. John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin will play chess and battle in the trenches, combining the best of both.

Both teams want to run the football, ranking 31st and 30th, respectively, in pass rate over expectation.

Justin Fields will make his third start for the Steelers, with Russell Wilson reportedly NOT being a full participant at practice. Fields has been extremely proficient as the Steelers’ quarterback, with zero turnover-worthy plays through two games. He's managed the game for the Steelers and has done just enough offensively to help them remain undefeated.

The tight spread indicates how closely these teams match up, and it seems unlikely either will run away in this contest with how these teams play offensively.

I jumped on the Steelers -2.5 in my early look ahead at the Week 3 NFL slate, and I see no reason to shy away from that now. Fields has continued to improve and still offers game-breaking ability with his legs to deliver if the Steelers need to.

Meanwhile, Herbert has been constantly banged up. And when you compare the two players straight up two weeks in as passers, Fields's efficiency has been superior. He has also made more big-time throws per PFF.

Given the home-field advantage, I feel the Steelers should be given more than 1.5 points.

Player Props:

George Pickens only caught two of four targets (20% target share) for 29 yards in Week 2.

At a glance, it's easy to write this stat line as "Pat Surtain treatment." Not quite. Pickens had a 51-yard catch (with Surtain in coverage) wiped away due to a holding penalty away from the play.

He has another TD call nullified because of OPI on Van Jefferson. Fields also missed him deep twice.

Essentially, he had one of the best games I've seen from a WR that resulted in a stat line of 2 catches for 29 yards. If you go back and consider the penalties, etc., Pickens was closer to a monster game with 135 yards.

The current receiving line doesn't accurately portray his abilities and upside weekly. He has a 26% target share this season, and the fourth-highest air yards share in the NFL (53%).

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. LA running back J.K. Dobbins has exceeded his rushing prop in his last seven full games. And he’s never backed down against the Steelers. In three career games versus the Steelers, Dobbins has rushed for 93, 113, and 120 yards.

My Picks:

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