Chargers vs. Titans NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 10)
Introducing the Week 10 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chargers vs. Titans.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 Betting Primer>>
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Sides:
- The Chargers have won each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Chargers are 5-3 ATS this season.
- The Chargers have scored first in six of their last seven games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Chargers’ last eight games.
- The Titans have lost six of their last eight games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
- The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
- The Titans are 6-7 at home since the start of 2023.
- The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 12 games at Nissan Stadium.
- The Titans have lost 14 of their last 16 road games.
- The Titans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-9-1 ATS.
Totals:
- Nine of the Chargers' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nineteen of the Chargers' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Chargers' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers are 7-1 toward the under this season.
- The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (0.8).
- The Titans are 14-10-1 toward the under in their last 25 games.
Overall:
It's a telling stat about how well the Chargers have fared against the spread this season while also boasting a nearly flawless record toward the under.
The Chargers defense has been one of the best this season, and they should have no problems slowing down the Titans. I'm not sure it matters whether it's Will Levis or Mason Rudolph starting for Tennessee.
The Bolts’ defense ranks No. 1 in the fewest EPA/play allowed this season. They are also great at limiting explosive passing plays.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Titans have recorded the highest run stuff rate (30.2%) against designed rushes this season, with safety Amani Hooker leading all defensive backs with 11 runs stuffs.
But Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins had had some big gains against stacked boxes this season, averaging over six yards per carry while ranking fourth in rushing over expected per attempt.
The Chargers run defense does the exact opposite, with them utilizing mostly light fronts on their defense. This season, Tony Pollard has the 34th-ranked EPA/rush and 39th success rate against light fronts this season.
I see so many advantages on the Chargers side here that I don't think the spread is large enough if Tennessee is too inept to move the ball offensively. And even if their defense can slow down the Chargers run game, I think Justin Herbert can deliver enough as a passer.
The offense has dialed up a more pass-happy approach since Week 5. They are +4% pass rate over expectation since Week 5.
And per Next Gen Stats, Herbert has recorded a league-high 709 passing yards on downfield (10+ air yards) attempts since the Chargers Week 5 bye, compared to just 145 total passing yards on such attempts prior to the bye.
Herbert has averaged 14.8 yards per attempt on downfield attempts since the bye, compared to just 6.0 prior.
The Titans have been a team that has always been someone to bet against on the road, and I see no reason to avoid that trend in this matchup. Of their four road games played this season, the only win and cover came against the Tyler Huntley-led Miami Dolphins.
And if we get the turnover-machine Will Levis in at quarterback, it just further backs the play behind the Bolts winning by 7-plus. BettingPros analyst Terrell Furman is very much on the specials teams/defensive TD for the Chargers in this spot at 39 points.
As for the total, continue to bet the under. These two teams’ strengths are in their defenses. Tennessee's defense ranks 8th in EPA/play allowed.
Props
Five of the last seven RBs to face the Chargers have exceeded their rushing projection, with them all hitting at least 64 rushing yards.
The Chargers defense has used zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (83.3%) in the NFL this season, including the highest Cover 4 rate (29.5%).
Chig Okonkwo has caught more than 2.5 passes in three of his last four games, but those have come with Mason Rudolph under center. With Will Levis returning to the starting lineup, Okonkwo has gone over 2.5 catches only once this season. Okonkwo saw a boost in playing time last week when Josh Whyle was dealing with an illness. Now 100% healthy, I expect Okonkwo to see a reduced role and less volume against the Chargers.
My Picks:
- Chargers -7.5
- Chig Okonkwo UNDER 2.5 receptions