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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Odds & Game Pick

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The Packers have taken care of business recently, winning three of their last four games. However, they haven’t been quite as good from a betting point of view while covering just twice in their last five. The Packers are 6-1 at home with a 4-3 ATS record. It’s also worth noting that Green Bay has gone under the total in all three divisional games so far this season. Will that trend continue in Week 15’s tilt with the Bears? 

The Bears have a little bit of wind in their sails after winning three straight games. Beating the Giants and Lions wasn’t necessarily impressive, but Chicago came through with an upset victory over Dallas last Thursday night. They’ll be looking to play spoiler this time too, although the Bears are just 1-4 ATS on the road this season. The trends favor under the total from a Chicago point of view as well, as the Bears have gone under 8-1 in their last nine as a road underdog. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The spread opened at Packers -5 with an over/under of 41. 
  • Current Line: Packers -4.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 40 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
  • Start Time: 1;00 ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: September 5, 2019 – Packers defeated Bears 10-3 in Chicago

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Bears at Packers >>

Overview

Mitchell Trubisky has looked strong in each of his last two games, which fueled Chicago to victories. However, playing on the road against a legitimate defense (in the division nonetheless) seems like a different task. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Bears’ quarterback reverted back to his inefficient ways. 

The Packers are close to full strength these days and their offense has been humming with a balanced approach. The passing game took over in New York two weeks ago, while Aaron Jones and the rushing attack came alive against Washington last Sunday. The Bears have been fairly generous whenever they come across legitimate running backs, so Green Bay has a chance to establish the run (and the all-important play-action) this week. 

Trends

  • The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the NFC North. 
  • The Bears are 8-1 to the under in their last nine games as a road underdog.
  • The under is 6-0 in the Packers’ last six games in the division. 

Prop Bets

Aaron Jones OVER 66 Rushing Yards
As mentioned earlier, I really believe Green Bay will be able to run the football in this game. The Bears seem legitimate against the run on paper, but that story changes when noticing how they perform against strong running games. Ezekiel Elliott (19-81-2), Bo Scarbrough (21-83), Todd Gurley (25-97), and Jordan Howard (19-87-1) were able to get the job done. Jones should see plenty of opportunities to cross the 66-rushing yard threshold and I’m betting that he makes it happen. 

Bottom Line

I feel much better taking a stab at the over/under in this game instead of the spread. The BettingPros experts exude a similar stance, as they are 50/50 on the spread. I’m looking towards under 40 here, despite the low total. This has all the makings of a grind-it-out affair between two divisional foes. The Packers should enact a run-oriented approach and Trubisky will likely turn back into a pumpkin. Both of those assumptions lean to the under. 

Pick: Under 40 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.