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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Odds & Game Pick

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The Chicago Bears will be looking to complete the season sweep against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend, and with the Vikings likely to rest some starters, the Bears may very well get their chance. Chicago won the previous meeting between these two teams this season, and that was with Minnesota at full strength. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7, but with reports of the Vikings resting their players hitting the wire on Tuesday, it has dropped all the way to -1. The Bears should be able to cover in this contest, and the under also holds some appeal as an initial lean. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7 on the Minnesota Vikings. The consensus over/under total opened at 41 points. The point spread has seen a dramatic drop to -1 on the Vikings. The over/under total has dropped to 36.5.
  • Current Line: Minnesota -1
  • O/U: 36.5
  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 29th
  • Last Meeting: Chicago defeated Minnesota 16-6 — September 9, 2019

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Overview

The 7-8 Chicago Bears could be staring at the end of an era so to speak. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky has regressed across the board, averaging the lowest yards per attempt of his career, and taking a step back in the yards per game, touchdowns, and completion percentage categories versus his sophomore season. This is despite Allen Robinson finally rounding back into pre-injury form, Anthony Miller finally breaking out, and the draft acquisition of David Montgomery to replace Jordan Howard in the backfield. Trey Burton was lost for most of the season, he played in eight games, but was hurt and operating an extremely low level all season. David Montgomery, despite his flashes of superior talent, has been worse from an efficiency standpoint than Jordan Howard ever was as a member of the Bears. Tarik Cohen has taken a massive step back from his 2018 numbers, averaging just 5.9 yards per reception, after recording 10.2 per reception last season. Khalil Mack has been the Bears’ only player to remain consistent. Injuries to starting linebackers Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan have made the Bears defense a parody of itself. Chicago is still likely just a quarterback away from competing in the NFC. Hopefully, general manager Ryan Pace is ready to admit the mistake all of Chicago knows he made and move forward.

The Minnesota Vikings are a strong 10-5 on the season but have some legitimate concerns heading into the playoffs. First and foremost is the health of their backfield. Dalvin Cook, the engine of the Vikings offense, is dealing with a shoulder injury that was bad enough to sideline him for a pivotal NFC North contest against the Green Bay Packers. Impressive backup Alexander Mattison was also held out due to a high ankle sprain. They appear to have ruined an easy path to the divisional round as they are going to now have to face either Seattle, San Francisco, or New Orleans in the wild card round instead of Dallas or Philadelphia. Minnesota lost to these same Bears earlier this season (9/29) by a score of 16-6. Their other losses include Green Bay (twice), Kansas City, and Seattle. Kirk Cousins has improved this season but can revert back to the quarterback we saw last season when the Vikings fall behind or face a good defense. Based on this the Vikings are likely hoping that the Seahawks climb to the third seed. Minnesota is likely to rest a handful of the starters with nothing to play for in Week 17, and Kirk Cousins has already stated that he is not sure if and/or how much he will play against the Bears this weekend.

Trends

  • Chicago is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests against Minnesota.
  • The home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests between these two teams.
  • The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
  • Under is 6-2 in the last eight contests between these two teams played in Minnesota.
  • Under is 4-1 in their last five contests.
  • Chicago is 4-11 ATS on the season. 
  • Chicago is 1-5 ATS on the road this season.
  • Minnesota is 8-7 ATS on the season.
  • Minnesota is 4-3 ATS at home this season.
  • Chicago is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against the NFC.
  • Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last five road contests.
  • Chicago is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests.
  • Chicago is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning records.
  • Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine contests against teams with winning records.
  • Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against the NFC.
  • Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 contests following a loss ATS.
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests following a win.
  • Under is 7-1 in Chicago’s last eight contests against the NFC North.
  • Under is 7-2 in Chicago’s last nine contests.
  • Under is 6-1 in Chicago’s last seven December contests.
  • Under is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five road contests against teams with winning hime records.
  • Under is 7-2 in Minnesota’s last nine home contests against teams with losing road records.
  • Over is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last four contests following wins.
  • Under is 11-4 in Minnesota’s last 15 contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven contests.

Prop Bets

Allen Robinson over 75 receiving yards (-167)
Robinson has cleared 74.5 receiving yards in three of his last five contests. He has averaged 88.6 receiving yards over that timeframe. Mitch Trubisky’s inconsistency and poor play have held him back, but this player prop selection is as much about targeting the Vikings secondary as it is about Robinson’s recent strong play. Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes have been the weak link of the 2019 Vikings team. Robinson posted seven receptions for 77 yards against the Vikings earlier this season, and Xavier Rhodes seems to have regressed even more since their Week 4 meeting. Every receiver playing with a quarterback playing at least a high-end backup level (like Trubisky) has torched the Vikings secondary.

Here are their three most recent numbers against from number one receivers:

  • Davante Adams: 13 receptions, 116 receiving yards, and a touchdown
  • Keenan Allen: nine receptions for 99 yards
  • Courtland Sutton: five receptions for 113 yards
  • Amari Cooper: 11 receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown

The only number one receiver type not to post over 75 receiving yards against the Vikings in recent weeks was Kenny Golladay who is playing with the Lions third-string quarterback. There is a strong chance that the weekend over/under player prop number is better than this pick-your-own-total over number, so the suggestion is to hold out if possible to see what line is posted before placing your action at PointsBet. If you cannot wait or fear that the number will be significantly higher due to his 88.6 receiving yards over his past five games, lock this one in as a one-unit play at PointsBet.

Bottom Line

The line for this contest obviously presupposes that the Vikings will be resting multiple starters this week. With them having absolutely nothing to play for due to the sixth seed being locked up and set in stone after their loss to the Green Bay Packers last week, they should rest their starters. Which players will get rested has not been revealed, but we can count on Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison being held out. It would also be wise for the Vikings to rest Adam Thielen and his balky hamstring, while at the same time limiting the snaps of Kirk Cousins. With that being said, it is still tough to bet on the Bears.

Much like the Ravens-Steelers matchup, there is minimal value on either side for this contest. However, the over/under which opened at 41 for this contest, now sits at 36.5 where it also offers minimal value. The under still seems like the stronger play based on what we saw from these two teams earlier this season. The spread probability sits about even for both teams, while the under probability sits closer to 60 percent. Some line shopping via our live odds page shows us we have quite a bit of choice regarding where to lay our action. Punch the under 37 in as a one-unit play at DraftKings.

Pick: Under 36.5 (-110)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6)
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.