Chiefs vs. Bengals NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)
Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chiefs and Bengals.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Sides:
- KC is 7-0 ATS over their last seven games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Chiefs' last 15 games.
- KC has been above 50% ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023.
- Joe Burrow is 14-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
- Burrow is 3-1 ATS and straight up versus KC. Exactly three points have settled all four matchups. They are touchdown road underdogs.
- Burrow is 62% ATS as an underdog (13-8).
- The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
Totals:
- Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chiefs were 1-8 O/U at home in 2023. They averaged 39 points per game total. They were 2-8 toward the over at home in 2022.
- Their 2024 Week 1 game went over the total.
- Six of the Chiefs' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line (eight of the last 10).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them. They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- Eight of the Bengals' last ten games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Wrote this last season. Week 2 is overreaction season. I am not overreacting to the Bengals' abysmal defeat versus the Patriots.
I don't like betting against Andy Reid with extra time to prepare for the Bengals. But who is more desperate for the win? There's no doubt it's Cincinnati. We all know the track record of teams that open the year 0-2 and how their playoff chances absolutely tank with back-to-back losses.
Joe Burrow and Co. NEED this win to avoid a disastrous 0-2 start. They've gone to Arrowhead before and emerged victorious so I don't think it crazy to think they can do it again.
It's another full week with WR Ja'Marr Chase back at practice, with the contract negotiations subsided. The focus is on football and the Kansas City Chiefs.
I won't go as far as banking on Bengals ML, but would anybody be surprised if a Bengals game featured a huge upset two weeks in a row? Regardless, six points is too much to lay on KC, given all four of these previous matchups have been decided by three points.
As for the total, take the under at 48.5. Arrowhead is home to the Kansas City Chiefs and games that tend to go under the projected total, which is always too high because their quarterback is Patrick Mahomes.
Props:
- Rashee Rice has 6-plus catches in 9 of his last 12 games played, including 8-plus catches in four of his last five road games played.
- Isiah Pacheco has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine appearances and 68-plus rushing yards in four of the last six games.
- The Chiefs faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs in 2023. They have also allowed four of the last six QBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards to five out of the six QBs.
- KC ranked inside the top 10 in targets to TEs in 2023. In Week 1, they allowed the most fantasy points to the position (Isaiah Likely)
- Joe Burrow averaged over 230 passing yards per game last season while playing through injuries. His Week 2 prop is comically too low against the Chiefs, even on the road. The BP projections have him for nearly 254 yards. In four career games against KC, Burrow has never thrown for 250 passing yards.
My Picks: