Chiefs vs. Broncos NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 10)
Introducing the Week 10 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chiefs vs. Broncos.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 Betting Primer>>
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- Rookie QBs are a combined 19-13 ATS this season.
- The Broncos are 6-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (4-3 ATS last seven road games).
- They are 8-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 14 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 15 of the Chiefs' last 21 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
- The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 22 home games.
Totals:
- The Broncos rank eighth in red zone defense.
- Each of the Broncos’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Broncos’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Thirteen of the Broncos’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the Broncos' last six road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Denver is 3-1 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 36.7 points per game.
- Ten of the Chiefs' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 17).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 3-1 toward the over at home this season (47.8 points per game).
Overall:
Bo Nix didn't come through in a tough road matchup against the Ravens, but I didn't feel he was totally overmatched. Despite being intercepted on his first pass attempt, they battled back in the second quarter before being blown out in the second half. The Ravens are no strangers to blowing teams out, and they didn't hold back against the Broncos.
But we know the Chiefs aren't a team that blows teams out. Even after a solid offensive performance last Monday night that came against a bad Buccaneers defense.
The Broncos’ defense still remains a top-notch unit even after they got badly beaten by the Ravens’ offense. And Denver has always been a tough out for Patrick Mahomes among his AFC West division rivals.
The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, Nix still boasts a strong 4-1 record ATS as an underdog (3-2 straight up) despite being a six-point underdog or more in all contests. Up until last week, the Broncos had not lost a game by more than seven points. Six of the Chiefs’ eight wins this season have been close games.
The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
Denver shows no quit. Give them to me all day against a Chiefs team playing on a short week off overtime that doesn't have the requisite firepower or desire to beat a team by more than a touchdown. The also might be looking ahead to a showdown against the Bills in Week 11.
The Broncos still have the No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed.
As for the total, it's an under for me. Two strong defenses going head-to-head. In their two matchups last season, the games totaled 33 and 27 points, nowhere near the 41.5-point total this game is slated for.
Props:
Despite completing a league-high 72 passes to tight ends this season, Patrick Mahomes has generated only +3.9 EPA on such passes (23rd-most in the NFL).
The Broncos have allowed -16.6 EPA on throws targeting tight ends this season (3rd-fewest in the NFL), recording a league-high three interceptions on such passes. Mahomes has thrown a league-leading five interceptions on targets toward tight ends this season.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a league-low 223 rushing yards on runs between the tackles this season, allowing opposing rushers to generate -45 rushing yards over expected on such runs (4th-fewest in the NFL).
The Chiefs have missed just 10.4% of their tackles on inside runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Courtland Sutton has experienced a rebirth the last two weeks - albeit against the Panthers/Ravens. It's a much tougher matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs this season (36.7 per game). Sutton has come nowhere close to 4.5 catches in his bad matchups this season, finishing under the number in six of nine games played this season.
My Picks: