Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Two teams that experienced incredibly heartbreaking losses square off this weekend. The Cincinnati Bengals couldnât make a kick to beat Green Bay and ultimately lost in overtime. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions forced a fumble, scored a touchdown and two-point conversion, and took a 17-16 lead with 37 seconds left. But the Lions did what they did best and gave up a game-winning field goal as the clock expired.
So, which of these teams can get off the mat? Letâs breakdown this intriguing conference crossover:
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Details
- Opening line: Cincinnati -1
- Current line: Cincinnati -3.5
- Total 47.5
Bengals are improving but still have fatal flaws
The Cincinnati Bengals arenât a bad team! Thereâs some hope in quarterback Joe Burrow and his skill weapons, Tee Higgins, JaâMarr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd.
But two major problems are putting a damper on everything: Cincinnatiâs offensive line and its coaching.
Both are pretty miserable, but letâs start with the line. The Bengals decided to take Burrowâs college teammate, Chase, instead of tackle Penei Sewell, who theyâll go up against this week. While Chase has undoubtedly paid dividends, this offensive line is still pretty bad. The Bengals have given up 14 sacks on the season and have a pass block win rate of just 54%. In addition, burrowâs already been banged up this season and most recently had to go to the hospital for a throat contusion.
Zac Taylor is also to blame for not getting the most out of the talent heâs got to work with. The Bengals rank 16th in offensive DVOA, 18th in passing DVOA, and 19th in rushing DVOA. The metrics say theyâre just an average offense, and play calling is a big reason why.
Cincinnatiâs backfield is also in flux, as Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury that limited him in Week 5. Meanwhile, backup Samaje Perine is on the COVID-19/Reserve list after leading the backfield last week.
Defensively, the Bengals have taken some strides. The unit ranks 7th in overall DVOA, 12th in pass DVOA, and seven in rushing DVOA. Unlike the offense, Cincinnatiâs defense isnât filled with much star power. However, itâs a solid unit that should be able to bottle up a Detroit offense thatâs struggling at the moment.
Itâs also fair to wonder how motivated Cincinnati will be for a road trip to Detroit after last weekâs brutal loss. But, of course, they also have an enormous road trip to Baltimore coming up next week.
Lions canât close
Dan Campbell is not a joke like some expected. The Lions probably should be 2-3. They play hard. They try. But they fail to execute, especially late in games. Detroitâs given up two game-winning drives in the closing seconds. At some point, you have to wonder how much they have left.
Offensively, the Lions are pretty subpar. Jared Goff is a turnover machine and has four giveaways in his last two games. The passing game is non-existent, as Detroit ranks 28th in passing DVOA and average only 5.6 net yards per attempt. The Bengals didnât have any reputable receivers but will have to play without Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephus. Oh, and T.J. Hockenson has been dealing with a knee injury the last two weeks and hasnât been close to the same player as he was to begin the year.
Things are pretty bleak in the Motor City. Detroitâs biggest offensive strength is its offensive line, but center Frank Ragnow is now out for the year, and left tackle Taylor Decker likely wonât be able to go this week.
Defensively, things arenât much better. Theyâre worse. Detroit is 29th in defensive DVOA, 27th in pass-defense DVOA, and 28th in rush defense DVOA. Campbell has this unit play hard, and itâs just not very good.
Bottom Line
So, who do you back? The more talented Bengals coached by Zac Taylor? Or the talentless Lions that play hard for Dan Campbell?
How about neither?
Taylor is a really tough coach to back on the road. The Bengals are 2-14-1 on the road straight up under Taylor. Theyâve closed as a road favorite just once since 2019 and didnât cover. So itâs an unusual spot for a Bengals team and a coach I just canât back.
That being said, I donât trust a shorthanded Detroit offense to move the ball effectively against a pretty good Bengals defense.
Therefore, Iâm going with the under. I have questions about Cincinnatiâs motivation in a sandwich spot and donât trust Taylor or the Bengals offensive line. Detroitâs defense stinks, but it has gotten pressure on 29.3% of its opponentsâ dropbacks. They could get to Burrow frequently and muck things up as they did against Minnesota.
PICK: Under 47.5, play down to 46
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.