Cincinnati Reds Team Preview (2020)

In a welcome sight for fans, the Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most aggressive teams in the free agency period as they prepare for the 2020 season. For a team that hasn’t reached the postseason since a 6-2 loss to Pittsburgh in the 2013 Wild Card Round, this rebuild has been a long time coming. In fact, this is a franchise that has won 68 games or fewer in four of its last six seasons, finishing no closer than 14 games out of first place in the National League Central since.

Despite their recent struggles, there is plenty of reason for optimism in the Queen City as we move toward the 2020 season.

Cincinnati scored just 701 runs last season (roughly 4.3 per game), which was 12th in the National League, ahead of only San Diego, San Francisco, and Miami. However, if you dig deep enough, you’ll see that no team in the MLB lost more one-run games than the Reds (33). The potential for a solid 2020 in Cincinnati rests on the production of some new faces. Here are the key additions the Reds made in hopes to return to postseason play in 2020:

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Mike Moustakas (Four years, $64M)
Among qualified third basemen since the beginning of the 2017 season, Moustakas’ 101 home runs rank behind only three other players: Manny Machado (102), Nolan Arenado (116), and new teammate Eugenio Suarez (109). While Moustakas isn’t a defensive stalwart by any means, adding a big bat to a lineup that struggled to plate runs in 2019 will go a long way. Moustakas is expected to be the everyday second baseman for the Reds, but he could see some time at the hot corner if Suarez is forced to miss the start of the season following offseason shoulder surgery. 

Shogo Akiyama (Three years, $21M)
An unknown commodity in the MLB, Akiyama has a proven track record in Japan as a hitter with elite plate discipline and elite defensive skills, as he’s won six Gold Glove awards in the Pacific League. He has a career slash line of .301/.376/.454, and a smooth transition to MLB pitching could lock him into the leadoff spot for an offense that is in desperate need of baserunners (.317 team OBP in 2019). 

Nick Castellanos (Four years, $64M)
Castellanos is an underrated hitter, having posted a .287/.337/.505 line over the past three seasons while also ranking around the top 30 in that span in runs, home runs, and RBI. The move to a homer-friendly park in Cincinnati should only further serve to bolster those numbers, especially inside of a revamped lineup. 

Wade Miley (Two years, $15M)
For a pitching staff that is already among the best in the National League, adding a veteran arm like Miley makes a lot of sense at the back end of the rotation. Cincinnati’s rotation posted the 5th-best ERA (4.12), best K/9 (9.70), 3rd-best xFIP (4.01), yet finished with a record of 48-54. While wins aren’t always indicative of success for starting pitching, numbers like that scream positive regression, assuming the offense can post better numbers in 2020. Miley posted solid numbers for the Astros last year (14-6, 3.98 ERA), although his 4.51 FIP and 1.24 HR/9 could come back to hurt him in the smaller ballpark in Cincinnati. 

Conclusion
Cincinnati has all of the pieces in place to make a run at the National League Central in 2020, and Vegas is taking note, as their win expectancy sits around 83.5 in early February, and it seems to be rising steadily as the team continues to improve their roster. Don’t be surprised to see this team make more moves, although GM Nick Krall recently said that there was “nothing on the horizon,” meaning that the Reds aren’t currently active in any trade talks. The way this offseason is going, don’t rule anything out. Rumors will continue to fly, and it seems that Cincinnati is actively engaging all of their options in order to build a contender for 2020 and beyond. 

Projected Rotation and 2019 stats:
Luis Castillo (15-8, 10.67 K/9, 3.40 ERA, 3.70 FIP)
Sonny Gray (11-8, 10.52 K/9, 2.87 ERA, 3.42 FIP)
Trevor Bauer (2-5, 10.86 K/9, 6.39 ERA, 4.85 FIP)
Anthony DeSclafani (9-9, 9.02 K/9, 3.89 ERA, 4.43 FIP)
Wade Miley (14-6, 7.53 K/9, 3.98 ERA, 4.51 FIP)

Projected Lineup and 2019 stats:
1. Shogo Akiyama (.303/.392/.471, 20 HR, 62 RBI, 12 SB)
2. Joey Votto (.261/.351/.411, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 5 SB)
3. Eugenio Suarez (.271/.358/.572, 49 HR, 103 RBI, 3 SB)
4. Mike Moustakas (.254/.329/.516, 35 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB)
5.  Nick Castellanos (.289/.337/.525, 27 HR, 73 RBI, 2 SB)
6.*  Nick Senzel (.256/.315/.427, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 14 SB)
6.*  Aristedes Aquino (.259/.316/.576, 19 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB)
7. Freddy Galvis (.260/.296/.438, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 4 SB)
8. Tucker Barnhart (.231/.328/.380, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 1 SB)
*(Senzel is the likely starter, provided he is healthy. Jesse Winker will also spend some time in a crowded outfield)

Chicago White Sox Team Preview
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Justin Elick is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Justin, check out his archive.