Citrus Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Big Ten and SEC foes are set to collide in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, as the Auburn Tigers will take on the Northwestern Wildcats. Both teams will be gunning for their seventh win and the chance to finish off this wild college football season on a positive note. Northwestern has garnered the betting market’s respect ahead of this matchup, with the odds designating them as short favorites.
Check out our 888sport Sportsbook review and promo codes >>
Details
- Opening Lines: Northwestern -3; O/U 43.5
- Current ATS Line: Northwestern -4
- Current Over/Under: 43.5
- Location: Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL
- Date: Friday, Jan. 1, 2021
- Start Time: 1 p.m. EST
- Television: ABC
- Last Meeting: January 1, 2010 – Auburn defeated Northwestern 38-35 in the Outback Bowl in Tampa Bay.
Overview
Auburn made it known to the nation that mediocrity is unacceptable when they fired head coach Gus Malzahn after his seven-season tenure. Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin has been hired as the heir apparent, but defensive coordinator Kevin Steele will coach Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers have been plagued primarily by inconsistent offensive production and quarterback play from Bo Nix this season. His 11-7 TD:INT ratio simply isn’t good enough when facing elite SEC competition. Auburn’s offensive game plan for the Citrus Bowl figures to be further complicated with the opt-outs of wide receiver Anthony Schwartz and the undisclosed injury of lead tailback Tank Bigsby. Star defensive back Jamien Sherwood has also opted out.
Like the Tigers, the defense has been the backbone of Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern team this season. The Wildcats more than held their own in the Big Ten Championship Game loss to Ohio State, and they should pose plenty of problems for Nix on Friday. Northwestern’s 21.8 yards per point average defensively is among the best in the country. Despite numerous games with fewer than 300 yards of offense, the Wildcats consistently manage to score enough to win. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey has limited his mistakes, but Northwestern’s average of 23.4 points per game only ranked 11th in the Big Ten. If Northwestern played in the SEC, that PPG number would sandwich them between South Carolina and Kentucky, two very unimpressive offensive teams.
Trends
- Auburn 2020 Betting Trends: 5-5 ATS; 2-8 to the Over
- Miami 2020 Betting Trends: 6-2 ATS; 1-7 to the Over
- The Under has hit in 11 of Auburn’s last 16 bowl games.
- Underdogs are 3-0 ATS in each of Northwestern’s last three bowl games.
- SEC teams are on an 8-2 straight up and ATS run in the last ten editions of the Citrus Bowl.
Line Movement
*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*
Both the point spread and total for the Citrus Bowl have seen limited line movement relative to other bowl games. The spread was briefly bet down to an even field goal margin before it ticked back up to the opening line of Northwestern -3.5. Meanwhile, the total has also stayed steady at the opening number of 43.5. This is one of, if not the lowest over/under lines of the entire bowl season in what figures to be a defensive-minded matchup.
Prediction
When you break down this Citrus Bowl matchup on paper, Auburn may have more individual talent, but Northwestern plays far better as a complete team. With that said, I’m hesitant to lay points with the Wildcats here in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. I’d have to lean towards taking Auburn catching a field goal plus the hook if I had to pick a side.
Points will undoubtedly be at a premium in a game that features two great defenses and two very mediocre offenses. The total is set extremely low, but I don’t see how this game flies over the number. The first team to 20 points may very well be the only team to reach 20 points, and that team will have a great shot to win. Shop around for the best number you can find. Every half-point will matter in this one.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-112 at 888sport)
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.